It's always exciting to see someone who has paid his dues burst on to the racing scene with a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. It's absolutely disheartening to see said person have that derby contender ripped away from him' especially when said person has done nothing wrong.
A couple of days ago, Jaycito's owner: Ahmed Zayat transferred Jaycito from Mike Mitchell's stable to Bob Baffert's. While I'm floored by the decision due to warm and fuzzy reasons such as honor, respect and loyalty, the logical part of my brain has some qualms with Mr. Zayat's decision as well.
The Kentucky Derby requires a horse to be in peak form. It is a grueling race with a take no prisoners mentality. Baffert is quite the trainer, and has won the race three times. He also nearly guided Mr Zayat's horse: Pioneer of the Nile to victory in the Derby in 2008, so the man can train horses- we know this to be true. It also needs to be said that Baffert is not at fault here. Refusing the opportunity to train Jaycito is like refusing to date your best friend's ex- and your best friend's ex is Emmanuel Chriqui.
The point I'm trying to make is that Mitchell is a very astute trainer as well; especially when it comes to extremely taxing route races. The San Luis Capistrano stakes is one of the most taxing races in the country. Racing secretaries rarely write 14- furlong races anymore, making the San Luis Capistrano one of the few tests of a trainer's ability to instill some fitness in his horses; Mike Mitchell has won the race twice. He has taken horses that seemed washed up and turned them into champions. He even came close to ending Zenyatta's win streak earlier this year. Like quarterbacks, trainers cannot be judged by wins and losses, but rather by how much they have done with the opportunities given to them, and Mitchell has always squeezed every last ounce of potential out of every single horse that has come onto his barn, so what makes Mr. Zayat think that this time would be any different?
The really sad thing about this is regardless of whether or not he wins or even races on the first Saturday in May, Jaycito will probably be one of the greatest horses to have ever been in Mitchell's barn. There is something about this horse that screams winner. As many know, he had to overcome incredible odds just to get to the track. The really great thing is that if Jaycito makes it to the run for the roses, no one will be rooting for him harder than Mike Mitchell, for trainers like Mitchell see every horse that comes through their barns as children more so than investments, and who can root against his own child?
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Reflections on the Breeders Cup
Well, some of you may be wondering why I only previewed two races. Well, it was all part of my master plan to look like genius. I picked the two races in which I was sure that not only would the favorite be knocked off, but also who exactly would knock the favorite off.
Well, of course, I was wrong.
Lets start off with the juvenile. I was brimming with confidence as Jaycito entered that starting gate because I knew that he was a deceptively fast horse who would love the mile and one-sixteenth distance. What I did not know was that Jaycito would unlearn everything that he had learned in terms of schooling and preparation, and drift wide after clipping heels with another horse; I did not see that one coming. I also didn't know that Uncle Mo could easily get the distance and provide the most impressive Juvenile performance in a long time. I'm young, but I'm from the old-school. I cannot show respect at the betting windows to a horse named Uncle Mo- I just can't do it. By the way, I make it a point to play John at least four times a day, so it's pretty funny- even to me- that he wins on the rare occasion that I choose to back someone else.
Oh well, onto the mile.
I was pretty happy I got this wrong. You see, here's the thing, as a young fan there just aren't too many times you get to witness thoroughbred racing history. So when Goldikova looked Sidney's Candy in the eye and said "this is not the La Jolla, and I'm certainly not Kid Edward", I had to respect that. Good job Goldi!
Of course, what recap would this be if I didn't talk briefly about the fight and Zenyatta.
As a man, when someone does you wrong you walk away 95 percent of the time. For Calvin this must've been the five percent. In Calvin's defense, he seems like a very nice man, so he must've been really disturbed by what happened. Personally, I don't blame him. Castellano put Borel's life in danger and cost him the race. Calvin had the right to be upset. Hopefully these two can kiss and make up. Personally, I don't really care as I waste most of my money on John, therefore the mental and physical condition of these two guys doesn't really affect me much.
Now for Zenyatta: I think this race did more for her reputation than any other race she has ever ran before. She got squeezed at the break, then she had trouble gripping the track for the first quarter of a mile, so it's logical to assume that she spotted the field an extra six or seven lengths in addition to the ten or so she usually spots them. Mike Smith did a great job riding, but so did Garrett Gomez. Garrett hugged the inner part of the track while managing to avoid the rail, which happened to be dead. Then there is age. Zenyatta is six. Blame is four. This is the best Blame will ever be. Zenyatta, though she was fit, has obviously been fitter than this. Then there is the surface. C'mon. Zenyatta is running on traditional dirt- something she hates. Blame is running over his favorite track. I'm so impressed it was a nose that separated these two instead of five lengths.
Well, of course, I was wrong.
Lets start off with the juvenile. I was brimming with confidence as Jaycito entered that starting gate because I knew that he was a deceptively fast horse who would love the mile and one-sixteenth distance. What I did not know was that Jaycito would unlearn everything that he had learned in terms of schooling and preparation, and drift wide after clipping heels with another horse; I did not see that one coming. I also didn't know that Uncle Mo could easily get the distance and provide the most impressive Juvenile performance in a long time. I'm young, but I'm from the old-school. I cannot show respect at the betting windows to a horse named Uncle Mo- I just can't do it. By the way, I make it a point to play John at least four times a day, so it's pretty funny- even to me- that he wins on the rare occasion that I choose to back someone else.
Oh well, onto the mile.
I was pretty happy I got this wrong. You see, here's the thing, as a young fan there just aren't too many times you get to witness thoroughbred racing history. So when Goldikova looked Sidney's Candy in the eye and said "this is not the La Jolla, and I'm certainly not Kid Edward", I had to respect that. Good job Goldi!
Of course, what recap would this be if I didn't talk briefly about the fight and Zenyatta.
As a man, when someone does you wrong you walk away 95 percent of the time. For Calvin this must've been the five percent. In Calvin's defense, he seems like a very nice man, so he must've been really disturbed by what happened. Personally, I don't blame him. Castellano put Borel's life in danger and cost him the race. Calvin had the right to be upset. Hopefully these two can kiss and make up. Personally, I don't really care as I waste most of my money on John, therefore the mental and physical condition of these two guys doesn't really affect me much.
Now for Zenyatta: I think this race did more for her reputation than any other race she has ever ran before. She got squeezed at the break, then she had trouble gripping the track for the first quarter of a mile, so it's logical to assume that she spotted the field an extra six or seven lengths in addition to the ten or so she usually spots them. Mike Smith did a great job riding, but so did Garrett Gomez. Garrett hugged the inner part of the track while managing to avoid the rail, which happened to be dead. Then there is age. Zenyatta is six. Blame is four. This is the best Blame will ever be. Zenyatta, though she was fit, has obviously been fitter than this. Then there is the surface. C'mon. Zenyatta is running on traditional dirt- something she hates. Blame is running over his favorite track. I'm so impressed it was a nose that separated these two instead of five lengths.
BC Mile Preview
Every single race in the Breeder's Cup is interesting; but if i'm being completely honest, this race is much more interesting than the rest- at-least from a betting perspective.
No horse has ever won a breeder's Cup race three consecutive times. If Goldikova crosses the finish line first today, she will have accomplished one of the most impressive feats in horse racing. This great thing, or sad thing depending on how you look at it, is that Goldikova could very well go down in flames.
The daughter of Anabaa comes in to this race in impressive form, having won four of her five starts this year. The problem is that she is facing all of the same horses she defeats over in Europe in addition to our best milers.
The American contingent is led by the big three: Sidney's Candy, The Usual Q.T. and Gio Ponti.
Now here is where it gets interesting.
The big three will all be attacking Goldikova at different parts of the race. Sidney's Candy will most likely set the pace, The Usual Q.T. will stalk a couple of lengths back and Gio Ponti will hang back close to last. This doesn't mean that it's impossible for Goldikova to win- not at all. What this does mean is that Goldikova's jockey, Olivier Peslier, cannot focus on keeping Sidney's Candy honest because that sets the race up for the othe rtwo American horses. In fact, he cannot hone in on any of them because it sets the race up for the other two. Throw in the fact that Goldikova is breaking from the far outside and things get even more complicated. If I'm Peslier, I go straight to last, mount a furious bid at the quarter-pole and pray that it all works out.If that's the strategy he goes with, Goldikova and a well rested Sidney's Candy could put on one of the most legendary stretch duels we've ever seen.
Goldikova will hit the board, but she may not be in the winner's circle. This is a great race to bridge-jump on Goldi and play Sidney's Candy, Gio Ponti and The Usual Q.T. to win. Proviso has an outside chance to round out the trifecta.
Live Longshot: Court Vision
No horse has ever won a breeder's Cup race three consecutive times. If Goldikova crosses the finish line first today, she will have accomplished one of the most impressive feats in horse racing. This great thing, or sad thing depending on how you look at it, is that Goldikova could very well go down in flames.
The daughter of Anabaa comes in to this race in impressive form, having won four of her five starts this year. The problem is that she is facing all of the same horses she defeats over in Europe in addition to our best milers.
The American contingent is led by the big three: Sidney's Candy, The Usual Q.T. and Gio Ponti.
Now here is where it gets interesting.
The big three will all be attacking Goldikova at different parts of the race. Sidney's Candy will most likely set the pace, The Usual Q.T. will stalk a couple of lengths back and Gio Ponti will hang back close to last. This doesn't mean that it's impossible for Goldikova to win- not at all. What this does mean is that Goldikova's jockey, Olivier Peslier, cannot focus on keeping Sidney's Candy honest because that sets the race up for the othe rtwo American horses. In fact, he cannot hone in on any of them because it sets the race up for the other two. Throw in the fact that Goldikova is breaking from the far outside and things get even more complicated. If I'm Peslier, I go straight to last, mount a furious bid at the quarter-pole and pray that it all works out.If that's the strategy he goes with, Goldikova and a well rested Sidney's Candy could put on one of the most legendary stretch duels we've ever seen.
Goldikova will hit the board, but she may not be in the winner's circle. This is a great race to bridge-jump on Goldi and play Sidney's Candy, Gio Ponti and The Usual Q.T. to win. Proviso has an outside chance to round out the trifecta.
Live Longshot: Court Vision
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
BC Juvenile Preview
This race reminds me of the 2005 Juvenile in which the bettors tricked themselves into thinking they were handicapping a two-horse race. Although Uncle Mo and Boys at Toscanova are both excellent horses, Jaycito has been quite impressive so far, and shows no sign of distance limitations.
With several horses vying for the lead, Jaycito's stalking style could benefit him greatly here. It's always tough to tell what to do with a horses form at Keenland, but still J.B.'s Thunder impressed me greatly with his runaway performance in the Breeder's Futurity at Keenland.
I think Jaycito is the class of this race. If the race were 9 furlongs, Jaycito would be a lock. At 8 and a half Jaycito is probably still the best. I think J.B.'s Thunder will set tough fractions and wilt at the eighth pole, but that should still leave him in a dogfight with Boys at Toscanova for second- you're guess is as good as mine concerning who comes away with that one. I think Uncle Mo is pure speed and will be exposed like many Juvenile contenders before him.
Live Longshot: Biondetti
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
