El Real Madrid

Earlier today, I saw one of the coolest things that I've seen in a long time. At the time, I wasn't even sure if I was witnessing what it was that I thought I was witnessing. I saw a racehorse named El Real Madrid run two races from three starts in eight days!

Today he led through honest fractions and I thought he would wilt away in mid-stretch, possibly finishing fourth or so. However, when he got to the top of the stretch he just pulled away in a display that would've been impressive even if he was rested and prepped for this race.

Now, anyone who knows me knows that I believe the declining interest in Thoroughbred Racing can at-least partly be attributed to the disappearance of iron horses like Boom Towner, who create a loyal fanbase and bring in people who wouldn't normally be interested in the sport. However, as someone who cares about the sport, I can't say that I'm too pleased with seeing El Real Madrid run three times in 8 days.

Thoroughbred Racing has suffered numerous black-eyes over the past decade or so, making each individual's own self-interest secondary to the interests of the racing community as a whole.

There are approximately 1.6 to 2.2 breakdowns per 1,000 starters. Even with the invention of polytrack these numbers have not declined. Most inside the racing community know that even horses that are sparingly run and have virtually no conformation flaws can break down. However, the everday fan- the guy and girl that this sport so desperately needs- feels bitter resentment towards the sport when these truly unpredictable injuries happen. Imagine how betrayed the everday fan would feel if an otherwise healthy horse broke down because he was run three times in eight days. I'm sure that his trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. felt that the chances for injury were marginal, as I've seen him run horses twice in one week many times before; however, if one of these days a catastrophic injury befalls one of these horses that he likes to run so frequently, the entire racing community will have to deal with the public relations nightmare that will ensue.

Running horses very frequently is a calculated risk, but our sport cannot afford calculated risks right now.

A Beautiful Microcosm

EA Sports President Peter Moore once said that sports seem to be a great microcosm of life, and maybe that's why it connects so many people around the world. The statement really resonated with me because I hadn't heard a more interesting and thoroughly accurate statement in a long, long time.

Though Thoroughbred Racing has lost its mainstream appeal, it still has a strong, almost cultish fanbase- and I think that's because it truly epitomizes Mr. Moore's "microcosm theory."

Take for instance the 1993 Breeders Cup Mile. Lure drew the number 14 post position and many thought that it would be his downfall. Turf racing is all about saving ground and it would take a special horse to go wide around turns and still win. However, Lure did just that. He wound up darting from the outside to the rail and he still had enough left to run past Ski Paradise and post a comfortable victory.

In fact, I've seen so many horses win from terrible post positions that a novice racing fan might think that the disadvantage of an outside post is not as bad as those of us who've been around the game make it seem. However, a bad post position affects your entire strategy and can cause a horse to have to cover an extra two to three hundred feet of ground. So, how is it that so many horses overcome this huge bias? The simple answer is that some horses just will themselves to win regardless of the circumstances. Anyone who saw the 2008 Kentucky Derby knows that Big Brown had to summon something incredible to win that race. He then had to summon that incredible something tenfold in order to win the Haskell that same year. The point I'm trying to make is that thoroughbred racing is hardly an egalitarian sport, yet so often the best horse seems to find a way to win.

Now how does this all relate to life?

Several days ago I was having dinner with my friend Russell. Every group has one guy who always has an interesting story to tell, and he's ours. So naturally, he pursued the one avenue of life most promising for those that always have a story to tell- he became a comedy writer. His career has been going well, and a month prior to our dinner I saw him do a hilarious set at Comix in New York City. However, when we sat down for dinner he seemed slightly frustrated. I can't completely remember how long it took me, but when I finally got him to open up he told me that his career wasn't progressing as quickly as he would've liked it to because he hadn't gone to an Ivy-League school like many other comedy writers.

I tried hard not to chuckle. I couldn't believe he was using his alma-mater as an excuse. Though it is true that going to an Ivy-League school opens many doors in the entertainment industry, people from all types of universities make it, because like thoroughbred racing, talent wins out. My favorite pop-culture writer Chuck Klosterman went to the University of North Dakota. Surely, going to Columbia would've been more beneficial for an aspiring pop-culture journalist, but Chuck made it anyway. In fact, the offices of top magazines are filled with people who did not attend a prestigious college.

Several years ago economists found that people who go to second-tier universities but possessed the credentials and gained acceptance into top-tier schools are just as well off in the long run. I would agree that going to a school that no one has ever heard of may be like breaking from the 20th post in the Derby, but those who are truly talented often make it anyway- just ask Big Brown.

Alabama Preview

As many people have been quick to point out, the showdown between Blind Luck and Devil May Care is not the same as a showdown between Rachel and Zenyatta, but the latter may never happen and the former is about to happen. So, let's appreciate the blessing that this is and not miss what we never had and may never have.

Here is my assessment of each horse. As I've said before racing is unpredictable and I'm a terrible handicapper; so bear that in mind before you go to the windows.

Acting Happy: Seems like a lot of cheap speed to me. I would pass on this filly.

Devil May Care: There are so many horses who just aren't themselves at the Derby but go on to be excellent racehorses that it would take forever to name them all. However, the one that this filly reminds me of is Serena's Song. Serena didn't run well at all, and she wound up finishing 16th place. However, she went on to have an incredible career and is regarded as one of the greatest racehorses of the modern era. This Todd Pletcher filly is a lot like her in that in a perfect world she would never go a mile and a quarter, but she has the talent to stretch out and get away with it. If there isn't a speed duel- and I don't see why there would be one- she can easily win this this race and cement her position at the top of the division.

Tizahit: I feel like I'm falling into a trap here. Every fiber in my body wants to tell you that this horse is overmatched and that betting on her is literally the equivalent of making a non-tax deductible donation to Saratoga. However, her connections just won a major stakes race in Canada with a 65-1 horse. Proceed with caution here.

Blind Luck: She usually finds herself digging tooth and nail to beat some fairly talented filly and somehow she almost always manages to pull it off. It's just unfortunate for her that she isn't facing some fairly talented filly- she's facing Devil May Care. However she manages to make this affair pretty interesting because unlike the other fillies, she probably wants to go ten furlongs. She will give it her all. I'm just not entirely convinced that it will be enough.

Connie and Michael: Watch out for this one! She proved that she can run with that impressive second to Devil May Care in the Mother Goose. We know that she has the tactical speed necessary for a ten furlong event, and her injury caused her to miss the C.C. American Oaks, giving her some much needed time off. I really think she will run the race of her life and surprise everyone. As far as whether or not running her heart out will put her in the winners circle is concerned, we'll just have to wait and see.

Havre de Grace: She ran an impressive race against Blind Luck but she's never been to Saratoga before and she won't be as close to the lead as she was in the Delaware Oaks. She is definitely worth keying in an exacta, and maybe Dutrow can work his magic, but she is not as good as her 4-1 morning line odds suggest that she is. Of course, racing is unpredictable and Saratoga is the "Graveyard of Favorites" so make of that what you will.

Clarity

Clarity was the big buzzword going into the Haskell Invitational. The Derby, Preakness and Belmont were won by three different horses, and none of them looked as impressive as Ice Box and Trappe Shot going into Monmouth Park's signature race today.

I personally thought that Trappe Shot, Ice Box and First dude would stumble toward the finish line in a three-way dead heat and muddle up the picture some more- boy was I wrong! Lookin at Lucky got the trip he needed, and manhandled the entire field today drawing off to win by four lengths.

The race is a perfect example of how clear your perception of a division can become after one race. The entire nation was pretty sure that Lookin at Lucky's less than stellar record was due to bad luck, as evidenced by the fact that the betting public sent him off as the 3-5 favorite; however with each setback more and more doubt concerning his ability started creeping in. The always honest Nick Zito even said that Trappe Shot looks like the horse to beat.

Well, with his emphatic win today Lookin at Lucky has now established himself as the best three year old. All that is left to do is make sure Quality Road, Zenyatta, Rachel and Lucky make it to the B.C. Classic and we will have the type of clarity concerning Horse of the Year that we so desperately crave but so rarely ever receive.