The New Secretariat

So, last night I went to see the Tom Cruise vehicle Knight & Day. While I was going through the corridor on the way to the theatre I saw the poster for the upcoming film Secretariat. The poster made me think of two things: the first is that Diane Lane has a really, really varied filmography. The second thing is that there has never been a horse that has come close to Secretariat, and to the best of my knowledge, breeders don't really try to breed horses like him anymore.

This got me thinking.

If someone were to try to recreate Secretariat how would he go about this.

Now, it has to be said that all horses are individuals. Each one possesses his own mind, body and spirit which can never be duplicated. However, if one were to try and breed a horse comparable to Big Red, which sire and broodmare sire would he choose.

The first question to answer is this: are we trying to breed a horse that has lots of Secretariat's blood? or are we trying to breed a horse that can run like Big Red?

Personally, I think it's one in the same. You have to bring back his bloodlines to get a horse that can run like he did. So lets get started.

It is basically considered fact that Princequillo passed on his large heart to Somethingroyal, who then passed it on to Secretariat, who then passed it on to the majority of his daughters, who then passed it off to their sons. If we accept this as a fact, then the pattern for passing off the large heart is male-female-male-female. This means that the large heart of Princequillo which was passed down to Secreatriat, lives on in the daughters of sons of Secretariat broodmares. Basically, colts who have Secretariat as their broodmare sire can be good broodmare sires themselves because they can pass down this gene.

This means that A.P Indy, Storm Cat and Dehere all qualify. In fact, Dehere has already had a decent amount of success as a broodmare sire. Two of his best horses as a broodmare sire are Meisho Yoshihisa and Midnight Lute. I think that whatever basic principles were used to breed these two colts is worthy of some imitation.

Meisho has Secretariat broodmares in his third and fourth generations. This could be the reason for a great deal of his success; however he also has Norther Dancer in the fourth generation through Lyphard and of course, Vice Regent. Midnight Lute o also has Northern Dancer through Vice Regent as well as Native Dancer, the great grandsire of Northern Dancer through Natalma. I'm not sure how Sunday Silence influences Meisho Yoshihisa's pedigree, but it seems clear that Norther Dancer and Dehere cross very well.

So, what is the best version of this cross?

Well, for our purposes, the best version of this cross would be through a horse that can produce something comparable to the great Secretariat. I'll put forth three sires: Giant's Causeway, Medaglia d' Oro and Duke of Marmalade. Since we can agree that they are all great from a nicking standpoint, I will judge them purely on what types of foals they usually throw.

Giants Causeway was quite the runner back in England and some say he could've won the Breeder's Cup Classic with a little bit of luck. Most of his horses can run all day, and they seem to like both the dirt and the turf. He stands in Kentucky and led the general sire list last year. If Eskendereya's earnings help carry him through, he'll lead the list again this year. Though none of his offspring have won the Kentucky Derby, they are mainly distance types with good turn of foot. I know that all too often we play the what if game, but if Eskenderaya was healthy for the Derby, he might have given Giant's Causeway his first Derby winner.

Medaglia D' Oro has really given the racing world some gifts as of late. Between Rachel Alexandra and Champagne D' Oro, Medaglia D' Oro might just single handedly produce all of the starters for the B.C. Distaff- and therin lies the problem. As great a sire as he his- and I like him more than Giants Causeway- his fillies are miles ahead of his colts. Of course I point this out as a negative even though the two best horses in the country- Rachel and Zenyatta are both female. There is no doubt that Medaglia D' Oro is a great sire, but the fact that his colts aren't as could as his fillies concerns me.

Duke of Marmalade I'm pretty sure that his foals haven't raced as yet, but he is by Danehill and you have to admit that this horse could run. He didn't fire in the Classic, but that was probably because he doesn't travel well. He's proven on turf and the fact that he has Kingmambo in his pedigree might cause people to lose confidence in his ability to throw a dirt horse, but could you have predicted Cigar, Barbaro and Big Brown's affinity for the dirt by looking solely at their pedigrees? Of course, I DO NOT claim to be an expert, but Duke of Marmalade had a lot of natural talent so if his foals are anything like him, and he nicks well with Dehere broodmares, Duke of Marmalade could sire the closest thing we've seen to Secretariat in a long time.

What's Next?

With all three legs of the Triple Crown being won by different horses, it seems like the racing world will have to look past the three-year old division for a superstar. Luckily, in addition to Rachel and Zenyatta, there is another rivalry between older horses that could capture the racing worlds attention: Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

Like most people, I was pretty confident about I Want Revenge going into the Kentucky Derby. So after his ligament injury, I thought that this was another case of an immensely talented racehorse who would never fulfill his potential. Luckily, fate has smiled on the son of Stephen got Even and his new connection IEAH stables and he is in training once again in preparation for the Suburban Handicap at Belmont.

After recovering from the quarter-crack injury that sidelined him for the Kentucky Derby, Quality Road went to the Breeder's Cup Classic, was blinfolded much to his chagrin, forced into a starting gate and almost killed himself. Thankfully, someone who works the starting gates at Santa Anita is incredibly cool under pressure and handled the situation with minimal damage to the animal.

Now that we have the two talented thoroughbreds in training it's time to run them against one another before it is too late. I'd love to see both horses pointed to the Whitney along with Rachel Alexandra, then the Jockey Club Gold Cup and finally the Classic. Lets hope that us younger fans who didn't grow up during the age of Secretariat, Slew and Damascus get to witness a truly great season of racing full of intense rivalries.

Obligatory Rachel vs. Zenyatta Post

It seems like most Thoroughbred bloggers do at least two or three Rachel vs. Zenyatta posts before the year is over. With the two mares both winning stakes races this weekend- although in completely different fashions- it seemed appropriate to talk a bit about these two fillies and stir up an interesting but ultimately pointless debate.

It is basically a fact that Rachel Alexandra does not care for Pimlico and could've won the Preakness by four or five lengths if it was run somewhere else. The reason I bring this up is because I believe that Zenyatta is a more talented horse than Rachel Alexandra. Rachel Alexandra is a more talented horse than Mine that Bird, and if Zenyatta hadn't had health problems as a young filly she could've possibly won the Triple Crown.

Zenyatta is one of those horses who kind of seemed to come out of nowwhere. This is because in a way she actually did. Due to what I believe were problems with her shins- but don't quote me on that- Zenyatta missed her two-year old season and most of her three year-old season as well. When she finally made it to the racetrack, Zenyatta easily disposed of her rivals to finish her three year-old season a perfect 2 for 2.

Though she always runs from the back of the pack, Zenyatta doesn't necessarily need a fast pace to close in to and has closed into soft fractions numerous times. Now, the 2007 Kentucky Derby was won by Street Sense. The Strret Cry colt closed into the blistering fractions set by Hard Spun and drew off to win the Derby easily. I believe that Zenyatta could've outran Street Sense much like she did Gio Ponti because she just has an innate determination and closing kick that I haven't seen in a long time. Let's make a huge assumption and say that with the weight advantage given to fillies in the triple crown, she is always two lengths better than Street Sense.

Like Street Sense, she is by Street Cry. She is also the half-sister to Balance. I think we can safely assume based on breeding as well as the way she has ran in the past that the distance of the Belmont would've been no problem for her. So with the Derby under her belt and the Preakness under her belt as well- assuming she really is always two lengths better than Street Sense- she would have to go to the Belmont to complete what is arguably the toughest test in all of sports- the Triple Crown. I think this may have been her easiest test on some level because of the fact that her breeding is Secretariat tough and she runs like it. However, this race would've been completely different from the rest because she wouldn't have been the last horse in the field. Think back to that fateful day in 2007. Another great looking filly was in that race, and she stumbled out of the gate. So, Zenyatta would've been ahead of Rags to Riches- a style she isn't used to. However, like I said before, she loves the distance and is definitely a classier horse than the rest. I think she would've won going away.

So, what is the point of this post? The point of this post is that all of the hypotheticals and what could've beens is what makes our sport so much fun. So, even if Rachel and Zenyatta never meet, we'll still be online, at the track and at the office talking smack about the other person's horse because when it comes to the sport of kings the arguments are half of the fun.

Sorry

So, I got the Belmont 100 percent wrong. What did you expect? I tried to figure out a race that almost always seems to produce surprise winners. To make matters worse, my cousin's friend who has never been to the races before, hit the exacta.

You have to love this sport huh? Anyway, there's still plenty of racing left. Plenty of opportunities to get things right. I hope your Belmont Stakes day was more fortunate than mine

Belmont Prediction

With my first post I'm going to attempt to do the seemingly unthinkable, I'm going to try to predict the winner of the Belmont Stakes. Now, I know what you're thinking. Predicting how horses will behave going a distance they've never been before is kind of like predicting how your family will react when you tell them you've been seeing someone for 6 months unbeknownst to them- no small task.

So, here's how I see the race breaking down

Dave in Dixie: Connections matter, and Dave in Dixie has some of the best in jockey Calvin Borel and trainer John Sadler. Borel is a great jockey, but his work with closers is legendary. It also helps that for some reason the closers almost always get a good pace to run at in this race. So, does all of this add up to a win for Dave in Dixie? Probably not, but what it does add up to is a shot for this colt to pick up the pieces late and hit the board for a second or third place finish.

Make Music for Me: Trainer Alexis Barba seems like such a cool lady that even if I had nothing nice to say about the horse I would just keep my trap shut and move on to the next one, however I actually like his chances...a lot! He had a terrible trip in the Derby and still managed to finish 4th. He doesn't seem to get tired, and if you're looking for a classier longshot than Dave in Dixie, he's probably your best bet.

Fly Down: Do you remeber a horse named Purge? Probably not right? He was the horse who everyone predicted would derail Smarty Jones' Triple Crown because of his impressive run in the Peter Pan. The reason I bring him up is because he reminds me an awful lot of Fly Down. He is a very logical pick because of his affinity towards the Belmont Surface, but he probably won't be anywhere near the leaders when they get to the quarter pole- play this one if you want, but don't say I didn't warn you.

Ice Box: You can throw out everything this colt has done before the Florida Derby. He's a new horse. He was full of run in the Derby but got stopped badly. Instead of giving up, he rallied gamely to pick off Paddy O' Prado at the wire. He likes the distance, he will probably like the track and he is just the classiest horse in the field. There are no sure things in horse racing, but if he doesn't bounce, and most Nick Zito trained horses don't, he will probably win this race by three or four lengths.

First Dude: Yes, his name is an homage to Todd Palin. Now that we've taken care of that let's talk about this colt's chances. He is a remarkably talented colt who did really well in the Preakness by setting the pace. However, that strategy doesn't work in the Belmont and his jockey Ramon Dominguez has given all indications that he will abandon it and try to take this race from midpack. The only problem with this is that no one discussed this strategy with First Dude, and the colt may not want to run that way. There is also the problem that he is breaking from the 11 hole and could get caught out wide. Ultimately, I just don't think that First Dude is the type of horse talented enough to switch running styles, get caught wide, and still win the Belmont. I'd play him in my trifecta, but that's about it.

So, there you have it. My assessment of the five best horses in the field. Hopefully, I won't have to come back here tomorrow and apologize for leading you all astray.