Sunday, February 20, 2011

Derby Contenders List One

I don't bet on the future book, which is usually a good thing, because most of the time I'm wrong. However, last year I backed Super Saver in December, but I couldn't prove it because I didn't play him in the first pool-or any pool for that matter. So this is me trying to gain some bragging rights by making my Derby picks way in advance and hoping it all works out. So, this is how I'd play the future book if I did that sort of thing.


(1) Jaycito- Giving my top spot to Jaycito was tough. Technically he only has one win so far- though that may change by March- and he doesn't really like big crowds, as they seem to unnerve him. Nevertheless, he's a throwback, and I'm a sucker for a throwback. With the limited amout of horses who can truly get the distance, he has to be taken seriously.

(2) Dialed In- After his impressive run in the Holy Bull, I wanted to put this colt at the top of my list so badly. He knows how to run. Sure he got the pace he wanted, but he still had to finish, and boy did he ever! He will have to get a step faster to win the Derby, but I'm confident that he can do that.

(3) To Honor and Serve- The horse got a mile and an eighth easily. These Bernandini colts seem to have no problem improving, and he should be no different. The only thing that worries me is that Bill Mott might not crank him up all the way come Derby day. If Mott, who's an amazing trainer, does drill this horse properly, I don't see why both Mott and Johhy V can't get their first Derby win.

(4) Brethren- Like I said before, I missed out with Super Saver and i'd love to avenge that. However, Brethren is not his brother, Super Saver. What Brethren is is a horse who didn't seem to mind the distance of the Sam Davis, could probably handle more, but is ultimately a step too slow.

(5) Uncle Mo- Have you ever hated on a horse simply because he reminded you of another horse? Well Uncle Mo reminds me of Favorite Trick alot, and we all know how Favorite Trick's derby run turned out...yeah.

(6) Mucho Macho Man - The Holy Bull was a complete disaster for this horse. So, if you genuinely like Dialed In, you have to like to like Mucho Macho Man. His Risen Star victory was also pretty impressive. He'll get sentimental money because of his hard luck connections, but he'll also get unsentimental money cause he's legit.

(7) Silver Medallion- He's clearly a turf horse- and a damn good one at that- but he seems like he'd be able to transfer most of that form. He has promise.

(8) Rouge Romance- Always a bridesmaid never a bride. I'm not even sure the longer distance will help.

(9) Machen- Ran an impressive allowance race. He has some upside.

(10) Gourmet Dinner- Like I said, the Holy Bull had plenty of talent and there is no shame in coming up short. That is unless you had a terrific trip. In that case, shame, shame Gourmet Dinner.