This year has seen more mediocrity than anyone in the racing industry cares to admit. Like everyone else, I was incredibly excited over Animal Kingdom's win in the derby because I thought we had witnessed the birth of a star. Unfortunately, Animal Kingdom suffered a season ending injury- though he did compete in all three triple crown races.
So, with the racing season basically over, I'd like to give my vote for horse of the year to Animal Kingdom for reasons that are more political than anything else.
He has obscure bloodlines, more toughness than any of the other major participants this year- though not by much; and he is still going to compete next year. So, to anyone out there who has a real eclipse award vote, you might as well vote for a horse that symbolizes all that is right with horse racing rather than the cliché pick: Havre de Grace.
If you are dead set against Animal Kingdom then go for My Miss Aurelia, but please don't encourage the comedic inconsistency that has plagued horse racing by voting for any of the horses that competed in the BC Classic.
My Miss Aurelia ran four times this year and managed to make going undefeated look easy. She is also a legitimate Derby contender, though her connections seem reluctant. Either way, it's time for us to put our foot down and say that losing more than two races, ducking your biggest foes and racing in only one state will simply not be tolerated anymore.
We will never get back to the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer if we act like we're fine with living in the era of Havre de Grace and Drosselmeyer.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Sunday, April 17, 2011
The Ultimate Rollercoaster
Like the term paper I neglected to turn in my senior year of college, I have to admit that I was unprepared for what has transpired on the derby trail these past few weeks. Uncle Mo wound up tanking in the Wood, but then it turned out that he had a stomach infection so the race can be dismissed. I always thought of him as a Favorite Trick wannabe, so I'll go ahead and dismiss him anyway.
So that brings us to the prodigal son- The Factor. I actually didn't get to see the race, as my television station only broadcasted the live call. As I heard the announcer yell out "The Factor has been taken back" I thought to myself if he wins this race then he really is something. Well, it turns out he didn't. Of course, the annals of horse racing are lined with names that appeared destined for mediocrity but then made a turn towards greatness; perhaps The Factor will be one of these names. As the track announcer so gladly announced, the local boys won it. ArchArchArch and Jon Court took home the victory, but so what? The race wasn't impressive and I'm still not convinced he is really legit, and so my search continues.
I really like Dialed In and Jaycito. I think Jaycito is the stronger of the two, but his immaturity really scares me. I'm not sure if he'll be able to focus with that crowd on the first saturday in May, but I love Smith and Baffert, so I'll most likely put my money on him if he runs. I really think that if he fully recovers, Jaycito will be a force to be reckoned with. I love that he's running so close to the derby as it will give him a chance to toughen up.
Then there's the mystery horse: Master of Hounds. His past performances leave something to be desired, but his breeding is impeccable! You don't have to be Sid Fernando to tell that Kingmambo out of a Sadler's Wells broodmare has derby written all over it. No European invader has actually won the run for the roses, but this guy seems different, and the fact that this is such a poor foal crop doesn't hurt either.
Like the lives of most people my age, this years derby trail has been filled with uncertainty and intense emotions. The trick to being twenty-something, like being a fan of a derby contender is to just throw your hands up in the air and say "screw it, whatever happens happens!" That's what I'll be doing from now on when it comes to Kentucky Derby prospecting as well as life, and I think I'll be better for it.
So that brings us to the prodigal son- The Factor. I actually didn't get to see the race, as my television station only broadcasted the live call. As I heard the announcer yell out "The Factor has been taken back" I thought to myself if he wins this race then he really is something. Well, it turns out he didn't. Of course, the annals of horse racing are lined with names that appeared destined for mediocrity but then made a turn towards greatness; perhaps The Factor will be one of these names. As the track announcer so gladly announced, the local boys won it. ArchArchArch and Jon Court took home the victory, but so what? The race wasn't impressive and I'm still not convinced he is really legit, and so my search continues.
I really like Dialed In and Jaycito. I think Jaycito is the stronger of the two, but his immaturity really scares me. I'm not sure if he'll be able to focus with that crowd on the first saturday in May, but I love Smith and Baffert, so I'll most likely put my money on him if he runs. I really think that if he fully recovers, Jaycito will be a force to be reckoned with. I love that he's running so close to the derby as it will give him a chance to toughen up.
Then there's the mystery horse: Master of Hounds. His past performances leave something to be desired, but his breeding is impeccable! You don't have to be Sid Fernando to tell that Kingmambo out of a Sadler's Wells broodmare has derby written all over it. No European invader has actually won the run for the roses, but this guy seems different, and the fact that this is such a poor foal crop doesn't hurt either.
Like the lives of most people my age, this years derby trail has been filled with uncertainty and intense emotions. The trick to being twenty-something, like being a fan of a derby contender is to just throw your hands up in the air and say "screw it, whatever happens happens!" That's what I'll be doing from now on when it comes to Kentucky Derby prospecting as well as life, and I think I'll be better for it.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
The Real Mccoy
I like Dialed In. I've liked Dialed In for a while, and with his performance in this year's Florida Derby he is now officially my "Derby Horse."
The odd thing about this years Florida Derby is that it has actually caused people to become more skeptical of Dialed In, and I can see why. The time it takes a horse to get from the three-eights pole, to the wire is usually a terrific indicator of how good the horse really is, and Dialed In took 39.12 seconds according to several accounts. To put that in perspective, lets say that your usual high-caliber thoroughbred takes 37 seconds to cover three furlongs, this means that if he was level with Dialed In at the three-eights pole, he would've wound up winning by ten lengths!
I'm not making a strong case for Dialed In am I?
The thing with the skeptics is that they are following a train of logic that isn't very useful when it comes to picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is a unique race with its own set of circumstances, stats-though helpful- are not as important as they would be in other races.
Dialed In ran past opponents who are only slightly faster than what he will encounter on Derby day.
His opponents in the Florida Derby post Beyer speed figures in the 90-93 range. Well, his other opponents, with the exception of Uncle Mo, post speed figures in the 90-92 range as well. He more or less encountered the same type of competition that he will encounter in the Derby. Gone are the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Modest speed figures and even more modest fractional times are the norm.
He has Nick Zito
You need a trainer who has experience with routes. Zito has that experience. If nothing else, Dialed In will be very prepared come derby day.
He is lightly raced
What was once a curse has become a blessing. Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown were all lightly raced going into the Kentucky Derby, and as I recall that went well.
There are many horses that can win the run for the roses, and i'm not trying to say that Dialed In winning is a forgone conclusion; I'm just saying that he has a chance.
The odd thing about this years Florida Derby is that it has actually caused people to become more skeptical of Dialed In, and I can see why. The time it takes a horse to get from the three-eights pole, to the wire is usually a terrific indicator of how good the horse really is, and Dialed In took 39.12 seconds according to several accounts. To put that in perspective, lets say that your usual high-caliber thoroughbred takes 37 seconds to cover three furlongs, this means that if he was level with Dialed In at the three-eights pole, he would've wound up winning by ten lengths!
I'm not making a strong case for Dialed In am I?
The thing with the skeptics is that they are following a train of logic that isn't very useful when it comes to picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is a unique race with its own set of circumstances, stats-though helpful- are not as important as they would be in other races.
Dialed In ran past opponents who are only slightly faster than what he will encounter on Derby day.
His opponents in the Florida Derby post Beyer speed figures in the 90-93 range. Well, his other opponents, with the exception of Uncle Mo, post speed figures in the 90-92 range as well. He more or less encountered the same type of competition that he will encounter in the Derby. Gone are the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Modest speed figures and even more modest fractional times are the norm.
He has Nick Zito
You need a trainer who has experience with routes. Zito has that experience. If nothing else, Dialed In will be very prepared come derby day.
He is lightly raced
What was once a curse has become a blessing. Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown were all lightly raced going into the Kentucky Derby, and as I recall that went well.
There are many horses that can win the run for the roses, and i'm not trying to say that Dialed In winning is a forgone conclusion; I'm just saying that he has a chance.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Derby Contenders List One
I don't bet on the future book, which is usually a good thing, because most of the time I'm wrong. However, last year I backed Super Saver in December, but I couldn't prove it because I didn't play him in the first pool-or any pool for that matter. So this is me trying to gain some bragging rights by making my Derby picks way in advance and hoping it all works out. So, this is how I'd play the future book if I did that sort of thing.
(1) Jaycito- Giving my top spot to Jaycito was tough. Technically he only has one win so far- though that may change by March- and he doesn't really like big crowds, as they seem to unnerve him. Nevertheless, he's a throwback, and I'm a sucker for a throwback. With the limited amout of horses who can truly get the distance, he has to be taken seriously.
(2) Dialed In- After his impressive run in the Holy Bull, I wanted to put this colt at the top of my list so badly. He knows how to run. Sure he got the pace he wanted, but he still had to finish, and boy did he ever! He will have to get a step faster to win the Derby, but I'm confident that he can do that.
(3) To Honor and Serve- The horse got a mile and an eighth easily. These Bernandini colts seem to have no problem improving, and he should be no different. The only thing that worries me is that Bill Mott might not crank him up all the way come Derby day. If Mott, who's an amazing trainer, does drill this horse properly, I don't see why both Mott and Johhy V can't get their first Derby win.
(4) Brethren- Like I said before, I missed out with Super Saver and i'd love to avenge that. However, Brethren is not his brother, Super Saver. What Brethren is is a horse who didn't seem to mind the distance of the Sam Davis, could probably handle more, but is ultimately a step too slow.
(5) Uncle Mo- Have you ever hated on a horse simply because he reminded you of another horse? Well Uncle Mo reminds me of Favorite Trick alot, and we all know how Favorite Trick's derby run turned out...yeah.
(6) Mucho Macho Man - The Holy Bull was a complete disaster for this horse. So, if you genuinely like Dialed In, you have to like to like Mucho Macho Man. His Risen Star victory was also pretty impressive. He'll get sentimental money because of his hard luck connections, but he'll also get unsentimental money cause he's legit.
(7) Silver Medallion- He's clearly a turf horse- and a damn good one at that- but he seems like he'd be able to transfer most of that form. He has promise.
(8) Rouge Romance- Always a bridesmaid never a bride. I'm not even sure the longer distance will help.
(9) Machen- Ran an impressive allowance race. He has some upside.
(10) Gourmet Dinner- Like I said, the Holy Bull had plenty of talent and there is no shame in coming up short. That is unless you had a terrific trip. In that case, shame, shame Gourmet Dinner.
(1) Jaycito- Giving my top spot to Jaycito was tough. Technically he only has one win so far- though that may change by March- and he doesn't really like big crowds, as they seem to unnerve him. Nevertheless, he's a throwback, and I'm a sucker for a throwback. With the limited amout of horses who can truly get the distance, he has to be taken seriously.
(2) Dialed In- After his impressive run in the Holy Bull, I wanted to put this colt at the top of my list so badly. He knows how to run. Sure he got the pace he wanted, but he still had to finish, and boy did he ever! He will have to get a step faster to win the Derby, but I'm confident that he can do that.
(3) To Honor and Serve- The horse got a mile and an eighth easily. These Bernandini colts seem to have no problem improving, and he should be no different. The only thing that worries me is that Bill Mott might not crank him up all the way come Derby day. If Mott, who's an amazing trainer, does drill this horse properly, I don't see why both Mott and Johhy V can't get their first Derby win.
(4) Brethren- Like I said before, I missed out with Super Saver and i'd love to avenge that. However, Brethren is not his brother, Super Saver. What Brethren is is a horse who didn't seem to mind the distance of the Sam Davis, could probably handle more, but is ultimately a step too slow.
(5) Uncle Mo- Have you ever hated on a horse simply because he reminded you of another horse? Well Uncle Mo reminds me of Favorite Trick alot, and we all know how Favorite Trick's derby run turned out...yeah.
(6) Mucho Macho Man - The Holy Bull was a complete disaster for this horse. So, if you genuinely like Dialed In, you have to like to like Mucho Macho Man. His Risen Star victory was also pretty impressive. He'll get sentimental money because of his hard luck connections, but he'll also get unsentimental money cause he's legit.
(7) Silver Medallion- He's clearly a turf horse- and a damn good one at that- but he seems like he'd be able to transfer most of that form. He has promise.
(8) Rouge Romance- Always a bridesmaid never a bride. I'm not even sure the longer distance will help.
(9) Machen- Ran an impressive allowance race. He has some upside.
(10) Gourmet Dinner- Like I said, the Holy Bull had plenty of talent and there is no shame in coming up short. That is unless you had a terrific trip. In that case, shame, shame Gourmet Dinner.
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