Thursday, May 2, 2013

Kentucky Derby Fractional Analysis

Fractional Times and the Kentucky Derby There are so many betting angles to consider when picking a Derby winner that there will probably be at least nine more invented by the time I finish this article. However, there is one angle that seems more interesting than the rest-fractional times. The amount of time that a horse took to cover the last three-eighths of a mile seems to be a logical method of picking a Derby winner. Of course, the method has some flaws, the biggest of which is that horses are pack animals, and as a result, some hate winning- Perfect Drift anyone? Still, the angle is worth taking a look at, so I decided to look at fractional times for the six main Derby contenders and see what I could glean.  

Goldenscents: 38.19 seconds 

I was surprised at his time because I thought he ran a terrific race and still can't believe he came home so slowly. I like his running style and how he seems to be outrunning his pedigree, but this is one time where the angle seems to smack the horseplayer; a.k.a ME with a dose of reality. Goldenscents is a terrific horse with plenty of heart; just like his jockey, but a Derby horse he is not. 

 Mylute: 37.64 

He is just a cool looking horse! I mean physically he looks like a horse who should be in the movies. His time was much better than Goldnscents and shows that he may get the distance after all. I have always thought that Midnight Lute was a 9 furlong horse who had to cut back because of respitory problems. So, Mylute's pedigree is actually better than some would have you believe. I still don't like that he couldn't get past Revolutionary though. 

Normandy Invasion: 35.88 

No, that is not a misprint. He actually ran the last three-eighths of a mile that fast! Now here is a good example of how this angle may have some faults to it. The time tells us that he is a true 10 furlong horse, but he just may not have the heart to run horses down in the stretch. One of the beautiful things about horse racing is that it has a mental component to it, and I horse needs plenty of desire to win. Though the time was impressive I can't say I am confident in his chances to win. Orb: 37.68 He almost wound up running the same race as Mylute. The difference is he likes to win. The time shows that he should get the distance so I like his chances. The fact that he has Joel Rosario certainly doesn't hurt either. 

 Revolutionary: 37.84 

Even though so many thought he ran a much better race than Orb, he still wound up with almost the same fractional time. I think he has what it takes to win, and I think he will get the distance just fine. I still would've liked to see a faster time, but I think this is one of those years where there is just too much parity amongst the top three-year olds. 

Verrazano: 36.53 

Okay, they were going slow up front, but he still closed out the race well. This horse really reminds me of Smarty Jones, which may or may not be a good thing. I think the derby will be run honestly and I think his run will be a mirror image of Smarty's in 2004, but whereas Smarty had to beat Lion Heart and Tapit, Verrazano will have to beat horses who are a little bit faster than that. This horse confuses me so much, I wish he had a bad post position or a jockey from Finger Lakes so I could just throw him out.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Animal Kingdom vs My Miss Aurelia

This year has seen more mediocrity than anyone in the racing industry cares to admit. Like everyone else, I was incredibly excited over Animal Kingdom's win in the derby because I thought we had witnessed the birth of a star. Unfortunately, Animal Kingdom suffered a season ending injury- though he did compete in all three triple crown races.

So, with the racing season basically over, I'd like to give my vote for horse of the year to Animal Kingdom for reasons that are more political than anything else.

He has obscure bloodlines, more toughness than any of the other major participants this year- though not by much; and he is still going to compete next year. So, to anyone out there who has a real eclipse award vote, you might as well vote for a horse that symbolizes all that is right with horse racing rather than the cliché pick: Havre de Grace.

If you are dead set against Animal Kingdom then go for My Miss Aurelia, but please don't encourage the comedic inconsistency that has plagued horse racing by voting for any of the horses that competed in the BC Classic.

My Miss Aurelia ran four times this year and managed to make going undefeated look easy. She is also a legitimate Derby contender, though her connections seem reluctant. Either way, it's time for us to put our foot down and say that losing more than two races, ducking your biggest foes and racing in only one state will simply not be tolerated anymore.

We will never get back to the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer if we act like we're fine with living in the era of Havre de Grace and Drosselmeyer.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

The Ultimate Rollercoaster

Like the term paper I neglected to turn in my senior year of college, I have to admit that I was unprepared for what has transpired on the derby trail these past few weeks. Uncle Mo wound up tanking in the Wood, but then it turned out that he had a stomach infection so the race can be dismissed. I always thought of him as a Favorite Trick wannabe, so I'll go ahead and dismiss him anyway.

So that brings us to the prodigal son- The Factor. I actually didn't get to see the race, as my television station only broadcasted the live call. As I heard the announcer yell out "The Factor has been taken back" I thought to myself if he wins this race then he really is something. Well, it turns out he didn't. Of course, the annals of horse racing are lined with names that appeared destined for mediocrity but then made a turn towards greatness; perhaps The Factor will be one of these names. As the track announcer so gladly announced, the local boys won it. ArchArchArch and Jon Court took home the victory, but so what? The race wasn't impressive and I'm still not convinced he is really legit, and so my search continues.


I really like Dialed In and Jaycito. I think Jaycito is the stronger of the two, but his immaturity really scares me. I'm not sure if he'll be able to focus with that crowd on the first saturday in May, but I love Smith and Baffert, so I'll most likely put my money on him if he runs. I really think that if he fully recovers, Jaycito will be a force to be reckoned with. I love that he's running so close to the derby as it will give him a chance to toughen up.

Then there's the mystery horse: Master of Hounds. His past performances leave something to be desired, but his breeding is impeccable! You don't have to be Sid Fernando to tell that Kingmambo out of a Sadler's Wells broodmare has derby written all over it. No European invader has actually won the run for the roses, but this guy seems different, and the fact that this is such a poor foal crop doesn't hurt either.

Like the lives of most people my age, this years derby trail has been filled with uncertainty and intense emotions. The trick to being twenty-something, like being a fan of a derby contender is to just throw your hands up in the air and say "screw it, whatever happens happens!" That's what I'll be doing from now on when it comes to Kentucky Derby prospecting as well as life, and I think I'll be better for it.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

The Real Mccoy

I like Dialed In. I've liked Dialed In for a while, and with his performance in this year's Florida Derby he is now officially my "Derby Horse."

The odd thing about this years Florida Derby is that it has actually caused people to become more skeptical of Dialed In, and I can see why. The time it takes a horse to get from the three-eights pole, to the wire is usually a terrific indicator of how good the horse really is, and Dialed In took 39.12 seconds according to several accounts. To put that in perspective, lets say that your usual high-caliber thoroughbred takes 37 seconds to cover three furlongs, this means that if he was level with Dialed In at the three-eights pole, he would've wound up winning by ten lengths!

I'm not making a strong case for Dialed In am I?

The thing with the skeptics is that they are following a train of logic that isn't very useful when it comes to picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is a unique race with its own set of circumstances, stats-though helpful- are not as important as they would be in other races.

Dialed In ran past opponents who are only slightly faster than what he will encounter on Derby day.

His opponents in the Florida Derby post Beyer speed figures in the 90-93 range. Well, his other opponents, with the exception of Uncle Mo, post speed figures in the 90-92 range as well. He more or less encountered the same type of competition that he will encounter in the Derby. Gone are the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Modest speed figures and even more modest fractional times are the norm.

He has Nick Zito

You need a trainer who has experience with routes. Zito has that experience. If nothing else, Dialed In will be very prepared come derby day.

He is lightly raced

What was once a curse has become a blessing. Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown were all lightly raced going into the Kentucky Derby, and as I recall that went well.

There are many horses that can win the run for the roses, and i'm not trying to say that Dialed In winning is a forgone conclusion; I'm just saying that he has a chance.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Derby Contenders List One

I don't bet on the future book, which is usually a good thing, because most of the time I'm wrong. However, last year I backed Super Saver in December, but I couldn't prove it because I didn't play him in the first pool-or any pool for that matter. So this is me trying to gain some bragging rights by making my Derby picks way in advance and hoping it all works out. So, this is how I'd play the future book if I did that sort of thing.


(1) Jaycito- Giving my top spot to Jaycito was tough. Technically he only has one win so far- though that may change by March- and he doesn't really like big crowds, as they seem to unnerve him. Nevertheless, he's a throwback, and I'm a sucker for a throwback. With the limited amout of horses who can truly get the distance, he has to be taken seriously.

(2) Dialed In- After his impressive run in the Holy Bull, I wanted to put this colt at the top of my list so badly. He knows how to run. Sure he got the pace he wanted, but he still had to finish, and boy did he ever! He will have to get a step faster to win the Derby, but I'm confident that he can do that.

(3) To Honor and Serve- The horse got a mile and an eighth easily. These Bernandini colts seem to have no problem improving, and he should be no different. The only thing that worries me is that Bill Mott might not crank him up all the way come Derby day. If Mott, who's an amazing trainer, does drill this horse properly, I don't see why both Mott and Johhy V can't get their first Derby win.

(4) Brethren- Like I said before, I missed out with Super Saver and i'd love to avenge that. However, Brethren is not his brother, Super Saver. What Brethren is is a horse who didn't seem to mind the distance of the Sam Davis, could probably handle more, but is ultimately a step too slow.

(5) Uncle Mo- Have you ever hated on a horse simply because he reminded you of another horse? Well Uncle Mo reminds me of Favorite Trick alot, and we all know how Favorite Trick's derby run turned out...yeah.

(6) Mucho Macho Man - The Holy Bull was a complete disaster for this horse. So, if you genuinely like Dialed In, you have to like to like Mucho Macho Man. His Risen Star victory was also pretty impressive. He'll get sentimental money because of his hard luck connections, but he'll also get unsentimental money cause he's legit.

(7) Silver Medallion- He's clearly a turf horse- and a damn good one at that- but he seems like he'd be able to transfer most of that form. He has promise.

(8) Rouge Romance- Always a bridesmaid never a bride. I'm not even sure the longer distance will help.

(9) Machen- Ran an impressive allowance race. He has some upside.

(10) Gourmet Dinner- Like I said, the Holy Bull had plenty of talent and there is no shame in coming up short. That is unless you had a terrific trip. In that case, shame, shame Gourmet Dinner.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

The Rivalry Game

Florida vs. Florida St., Ohio St. vs. Michigan, USC vs. UCLA, these are the games that make college football matter! I know guys who do not watch college football, but will watch the rivalry games. These games are the foundation on which the sport has been built.

Horse Racing too has had its share of rivalries. Affirmed versus Alydar, Easy Goer versus Sunday Silence and Lure versus Star of Cozzene come to mind. The problem with these rivalries is that they are between individual horses. Rivalries between horses are few and far between and usually very anticlimactic (Yes, I am referring to Rachel v Zenyatta). What racing could really use is inter-stable rivalries. These rivalries would put a human face on the sport, and could potentially last forever.

The question is: Which stables would make the best rivals? Here's what I came up with.


IEAH vs. West Point Thoroughbreds:

Like two girls who wound up wearing the same dress to the ball, the two major racing partnerships must harbor some healthy animosity to one another. Throw in the fact that many think Iavorone and Dutrow are not always the best horsemen, and you have the classic good guy versus bad guy tale; although I personally do not believe that anyone gets into the racing business to abuse horses-just my opinion. Either way, IEAH and West Point should agree to meet head to head in a series of graded stakes races and settle the question of which racing partnership is greatest once and for all.

Claiborne Farms vs. ?

Claiborne races and then stands stallions like nobody else. That's why I put a question mark in place of their opponent's name. The other breeders who also race need to step their game up. Overbrook Farms is making a comeback. Perhaps Claiborne will have a rival after all. The stakes would be very high in this rivalry as Claiborne themselves stand the sires they race, and a loss could affect that horses value at stud terribly. On a less meaningful note, both stables have really cheerful looking silks. I wouldn't mind seeing either of those silks side by side coming down the stretch.

Mary Lou Whitney vs. Jenny Craig

The Queen of Saratoga takes on the queen of weight loss. Now, of course in order for this rivalry to succeed, Jenny has to start winning more races; it's not that Jenny doesn't win plenty of races, it's just that Mary Lou wins everything. Provided Jenny Craig does kick her win percentage into overdrive, this could be one for the ages. Think about it. Jenny's base is Golden Gate fields and Mary Lou's base is Belmont/Saratoga. This is going to get ugly. Who said crazy, pointless geographically based rivalries were the domain of hip-hop stars alone?

The main point that I'm trying to make is that racing needs a human component. When thousands of people say they like Zenyatta, but are clueless as to who her jockey is, that is generally a bad thing because Zenyatta is retired, but Mike Smith should be around for a while. This is just one of the ideas I have. Feel free to comment.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Ye Old Switcheroo

It's always exciting to see someone who has paid his dues burst on to the racing scene with a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. It's absolutely disheartening to see said person have that derby contender ripped away from him' especially when said person has done nothing wrong.

A couple of days ago, Jaycito's owner: Ahmed Zayat transferred Jaycito from Mike Mitchell's stable to Bob Baffert's. While I'm floored by the decision due to warm and fuzzy reasons such as honor, respect and loyalty, the logical part of my brain has some qualms with Mr. Zayat's decision as well.

The Kentucky Derby requires a horse to be in peak form. It is a grueling race with a take no prisoners mentality. Baffert is quite the trainer, and has won the race three times. He also nearly guided Mr Zayat's horse: Pioneer of the Nile to victory in the Derby in 2008, so the man can train horses- we know this to be true. It also needs to be said that Baffert is not at fault here. Refusing the opportunity to train Jaycito is like refusing to date your best friend's ex- and your best friend's ex is Emmanuel Chriqui.

The point I'm trying to make is that Mitchell is a very astute trainer as well; especially when it comes to extremely taxing route races. The San Luis Capistrano stakes is one of the most taxing races in the country. Racing secretaries rarely write 14- furlong races anymore, making the San Luis Capistrano one of the few tests of a trainer's ability to instill some fitness in his horses; Mike Mitchell has won the race twice. He has taken horses that seemed washed up and turned them into champions. He even came close to ending Zenyatta's win streak earlier this year. Like quarterbacks, trainers cannot be judged by wins and losses, but rather by how much they have done with the opportunities given to them, and Mitchell has always squeezed every last ounce of potential out of every single horse that has come onto his barn, so what makes Mr. Zayat think that this time would be any different?

The really sad thing about this is regardless of whether or not he wins or even races on the first Saturday in May, Jaycito will probably be one of the greatest horses to have ever been in Mitchell's barn. There is something about this horse that screams winner. As many know, he had to overcome incredible odds just to get to the track. The really great thing is that if Jaycito makes it to the run for the roses, no one will be rooting for him harder than Mike Mitchell, for trainers like Mitchell see every horse that comes through their barns as children more so than investments, and who can root against his own child?