Like the term paper I neglected to turn in my senior year of college, I have to admit that I was unprepared for what has transpired on the derby trail these past few weeks. Uncle Mo wound up tanking in the Wood, but then it turned out that he had a stomach infection so the race can be dismissed. I always thought of him as a Favorite Trick wannabe, so I'll go ahead and dismiss him anyway.
So that brings us to the prodigal son- The Factor. I actually didn't get to see the race, as my television station only broadcasted the live call. As I heard the announcer yell out "The Factor has been taken back" I thought to myself if he wins this race then he really is something. Well, it turns out he didn't. Of course, the annals of horse racing are lined with names that appeared destined for mediocrity but then made a turn towards greatness; perhaps The Factor will be one of these names. As the track announcer so gladly announced, the local boys won it. ArchArchArch and Jon Court took home the victory, but so what? The race wasn't impressive and I'm still not convinced he is really legit, and so my search continues.
I really like Dialed In and Jaycito. I think Jaycito is the stronger of the two, but his immaturity really scares me. I'm not sure if he'll be able to focus with that crowd on the first saturday in May, but I love Smith and Baffert, so I'll most likely put my money on him if he runs. I really think that if he fully recovers, Jaycito will be a force to be reckoned with. I love that he's running so close to the derby as it will give him a chance to toughen up.
Then there's the mystery horse: Master of Hounds. His past performances leave something to be desired, but his breeding is impeccable! You don't have to be Sid Fernando to tell that Kingmambo out of a Sadler's Wells broodmare has derby written all over it. No European invader has actually won the run for the roses, but this guy seems different, and the fact that this is such a poor foal crop doesn't hurt either.
Like the lives of most people my age, this years derby trail has been filled with uncertainty and intense emotions. The trick to being twenty-something, like being a fan of a derby contender is to just throw your hands up in the air and say "screw it, whatever happens happens!" That's what I'll be doing from now on when it comes to Kentucky Derby prospecting as well as life, and I think I'll be better for it.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
The Real Mccoy
I like Dialed In. I've liked Dialed In for a while, and with his performance in this year's Florida Derby he is now officially my "Derby Horse."
The odd thing about this years Florida Derby is that it has actually caused people to become more skeptical of Dialed In, and I can see why. The time it takes a horse to get from the three-eights pole, to the wire is usually a terrific indicator of how good the horse really is, and Dialed In took 39.12 seconds according to several accounts. To put that in perspective, lets say that your usual high-caliber thoroughbred takes 37 seconds to cover three furlongs, this means that if he was level with Dialed In at the three-eights pole, he would've wound up winning by ten lengths!
I'm not making a strong case for Dialed In am I?
The thing with the skeptics is that they are following a train of logic that isn't very useful when it comes to picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is a unique race with its own set of circumstances, stats-though helpful- are not as important as they would be in other races.
Dialed In ran past opponents who are only slightly faster than what he will encounter on Derby day.
His opponents in the Florida Derby post Beyer speed figures in the 90-93 range. Well, his other opponents, with the exception of Uncle Mo, post speed figures in the 90-92 range as well. He more or less encountered the same type of competition that he will encounter in the Derby. Gone are the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Modest speed figures and even more modest fractional times are the norm.
He has Nick Zito
You need a trainer who has experience with routes. Zito has that experience. If nothing else, Dialed In will be very prepared come derby day.
He is lightly raced
What was once a curse has become a blessing. Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown were all lightly raced going into the Kentucky Derby, and as I recall that went well.
There are many horses that can win the run for the roses, and i'm not trying to say that Dialed In winning is a forgone conclusion; I'm just saying that he has a chance.
The odd thing about this years Florida Derby is that it has actually caused people to become more skeptical of Dialed In, and I can see why. The time it takes a horse to get from the three-eights pole, to the wire is usually a terrific indicator of how good the horse really is, and Dialed In took 39.12 seconds according to several accounts. To put that in perspective, lets say that your usual high-caliber thoroughbred takes 37 seconds to cover three furlongs, this means that if he was level with Dialed In at the three-eights pole, he would've wound up winning by ten lengths!
I'm not making a strong case for Dialed In am I?
The thing with the skeptics is that they are following a train of logic that isn't very useful when it comes to picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is a unique race with its own set of circumstances, stats-though helpful- are not as important as they would be in other races.
Dialed In ran past opponents who are only slightly faster than what he will encounter on Derby day.
His opponents in the Florida Derby post Beyer speed figures in the 90-93 range. Well, his other opponents, with the exception of Uncle Mo, post speed figures in the 90-92 range as well. He more or less encountered the same type of competition that he will encounter in the Derby. Gone are the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Modest speed figures and even more modest fractional times are the norm.
He has Nick Zito
You need a trainer who has experience with routes. Zito has that experience. If nothing else, Dialed In will be very prepared come derby day.
He is lightly raced
What was once a curse has become a blessing. Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown were all lightly raced going into the Kentucky Derby, and as I recall that went well.
There are many horses that can win the run for the roses, and i'm not trying to say that Dialed In winning is a forgone conclusion; I'm just saying that he has a chance.
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