Kentucky Derby Fractional Analysis

Fractional Times and the Kentucky Derby There are so many betting angles to consider when picking a Derby winner that there will probably be at least nine more invented by the time I finish this article. However, there is one angle that seems more interesting than the rest-fractional times. The amount of time that a horse took to cover the last three-eighths of a mile seems to be a logical method of picking a Derby winner. Of course, the method has some flaws, the biggest of which is that horses are pack animals, and as a result, some hate winning- Perfect Drift anyone? Still, the angle is worth taking a look at, so I decided to look at fractional times for the six main Derby contenders and see what I could glean.  

Goldenscents: 38.19 seconds 

I was surprised at his time because I thought he ran a terrific race and still can't believe he came home so slowly. I like his running style and how he seems to be outrunning his pedigree, but this is one time where the angle seems to smack the horseplayer; a.k.a ME with a dose of reality. Goldenscents is a terrific horse with plenty of heart; just like his jockey, but a Derby horse he is not. 

 Mylute: 37.64 

He is just a cool looking horse! I mean physically he looks like a horse who should be in the movies. His time was much better than Goldnscents and shows that he may get the distance after all. I have always thought that Midnight Lute was a 9 furlong horse who had to cut back because of respitory problems. So, Mylute's pedigree is actually better than some would have you believe. I still don't like that he couldn't get past Revolutionary though. 

Normandy Invasion: 35.88 

No, that is not a misprint. He actually ran the last three-eighths of a mile that fast! Now here is a good example of how this angle may have some faults to it. The time tells us that he is a true 10 furlong horse, but he just may not have the heart to run horses down in the stretch. One of the beautiful things about horse racing is that it has a mental component to it, and I horse needs plenty of desire to win. Though the time was impressive I can't say I am confident in his chances to win. Orb: 37.68 He almost wound up running the same race as Mylute. The difference is he likes to win. The time shows that he should get the distance so I like his chances. The fact that he has Joel Rosario certainly doesn't hurt either. 

 Revolutionary: 37.84 

Even though so many thought he ran a much better race than Orb, he still wound up with almost the same fractional time. I think he has what it takes to win, and I think he will get the distance just fine. I still would've liked to see a faster time, but I think this is one of those years where there is just too much parity amongst the top three-year olds. 

Verrazano: 36.53 

Okay, they were going slow up front, but he still closed out the race well. This horse really reminds me of Smarty Jones, which may or may not be a good thing. I think the derby will be run honestly and I think his run will be a mirror image of Smarty's in 2004, but whereas Smarty had to beat Lion Heart and Tapit, Verrazano will have to beat horses who are a little bit faster than that. This horse confuses me so much, I wish he had a bad post position or a jockey from Finger Lakes so I could just throw him out.