The Real Mccoy

I like Dialed In. I've liked Dialed In for a while, and with his performance in this year's Florida Derby he is now officially my "Derby Horse."

The odd thing about this years Florida Derby is that it has actually caused people to become more skeptical of Dialed In, and I can see why. The time it takes a horse to get from the three-eights pole, to the wire is usually a terrific indicator of how good the horse really is, and Dialed In took 39.12 seconds according to several accounts. To put that in perspective, lets say that your usual high-caliber thoroughbred takes 37 seconds to cover three furlongs, this means that if he was level with Dialed In at the three-eights pole, he would've wound up winning by ten lengths!

I'm not making a strong case for Dialed In am I?

The thing with the skeptics is that they are following a train of logic that isn't very useful when it comes to picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is a unique race with its own set of circumstances, stats-though helpful- are not as important as they would be in other races.

Dialed In ran past opponents who are only slightly faster than what he will encounter on Derby day.

His opponents in the Florida Derby post Beyer speed figures in the 90-93 range. Well, his other opponents, with the exception of Uncle Mo, post speed figures in the 90-92 range as well. He more or less encountered the same type of competition that he will encounter in the Derby. Gone are the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Modest speed figures and even more modest fractional times are the norm.

He has Nick Zito

You need a trainer who has experience with routes. Zito has that experience. If nothing else, Dialed In will be very prepared come derby day.

He is lightly raced

What was once a curse has become a blessing. Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown were all lightly raced going into the Kentucky Derby, and as I recall that went well.

There are many horses that can win the run for the roses, and i'm not trying to say that Dialed In winning is a forgone conclusion; I'm just saying that he has a chance.