Belmont Prediction

With my first post I'm going to attempt to do the seemingly unthinkable, I'm going to try to predict the winner of the Belmont Stakes. Now, I know what you're thinking. Predicting how horses will behave going a distance they've never been before is kind of like predicting how your family will react when you tell them you've been seeing someone for 6 months unbeknownst to them- no small task.

So, here's how I see the race breaking down

Dave in Dixie: Connections matter, and Dave in Dixie has some of the best in jockey Calvin Borel and trainer John Sadler. Borel is a great jockey, but his work with closers is legendary. It also helps that for some reason the closers almost always get a good pace to run at in this race. So, does all of this add up to a win for Dave in Dixie? Probably not, but what it does add up to is a shot for this colt to pick up the pieces late and hit the board for a second or third place finish.

Make Music for Me: Trainer Alexis Barba seems like such a cool lady that even if I had nothing nice to say about the horse I would just keep my trap shut and move on to the next one, however I actually like his chances...a lot! He had a terrible trip in the Derby and still managed to finish 4th. He doesn't seem to get tired, and if you're looking for a classier longshot than Dave in Dixie, he's probably your best bet.

Fly Down: Do you remeber a horse named Purge? Probably not right? He was the horse who everyone predicted would derail Smarty Jones' Triple Crown because of his impressive run in the Peter Pan. The reason I bring him up is because he reminds me an awful lot of Fly Down. He is a very logical pick because of his affinity towards the Belmont Surface, but he probably won't be anywhere near the leaders when they get to the quarter pole- play this one if you want, but don't say I didn't warn you.

Ice Box: You can throw out everything this colt has done before the Florida Derby. He's a new horse. He was full of run in the Derby but got stopped badly. Instead of giving up, he rallied gamely to pick off Paddy O' Prado at the wire. He likes the distance, he will probably like the track and he is just the classiest horse in the field. There are no sure things in horse racing, but if he doesn't bounce, and most Nick Zito trained horses don't, he will probably win this race by three or four lengths.

First Dude: Yes, his name is an homage to Todd Palin. Now that we've taken care of that let's talk about this colt's chances. He is a remarkably talented colt who did really well in the Preakness by setting the pace. However, that strategy doesn't work in the Belmont and his jockey Ramon Dominguez has given all indications that he will abandon it and try to take this race from midpack. The only problem with this is that no one discussed this strategy with First Dude, and the colt may not want to run that way. There is also the problem that he is breaking from the 11 hole and could get caught out wide. Ultimately, I just don't think that First Dude is the type of horse talented enough to switch running styles, get caught wide, and still win the Belmont. I'd play him in my trifecta, but that's about it.

So, there you have it. My assessment of the five best horses in the field. Hopefully, I won't have to come back here tomorrow and apologize for leading you all astray.