Kentucky Derby Fractional Analysis

Fractional Times and the Kentucky Derby There are so many betting angles to consider when picking a Derby winner that there will probably be at least nine more invented by the time I finish this article. However, there is one angle that seems more interesting than the rest-fractional times. The amount of time that a horse took to cover the last three-eighths of a mile seems to be a logical method of picking a Derby winner. Of course, the method has some flaws, the biggest of which is that horses are pack animals, and as a result, some hate winning- Perfect Drift anyone? Still, the angle is worth taking a look at, so I decided to look at fractional times for the six main Derby contenders and see what I could glean.  

Goldenscents: 38.19 seconds 

I was surprised at his time because I thought he ran a terrific race and still can't believe he came home so slowly. I like his running style and how he seems to be outrunning his pedigree, but this is one time where the angle seems to smack the horseplayer; a.k.a ME with a dose of reality. Goldenscents is a terrific horse with plenty of heart; just like his jockey, but a Derby horse he is not. 

 Mylute: 37.64 

He is just a cool looking horse! I mean physically he looks like a horse who should be in the movies. His time was much better than Goldnscents and shows that he may get the distance after all. I have always thought that Midnight Lute was a 9 furlong horse who had to cut back because of respitory problems. So, Mylute's pedigree is actually better than some would have you believe. I still don't like that he couldn't get past Revolutionary though. 

Normandy Invasion: 35.88 

No, that is not a misprint. He actually ran the last three-eighths of a mile that fast! Now here is a good example of how this angle may have some faults to it. The time tells us that he is a true 10 furlong horse, but he just may not have the heart to run horses down in the stretch. One of the beautiful things about horse racing is that it has a mental component to it, and I horse needs plenty of desire to win. Though the time was impressive I can't say I am confident in his chances to win. Orb: 37.68 He almost wound up running the same race as Mylute. The difference is he likes to win. The time shows that he should get the distance so I like his chances. The fact that he has Joel Rosario certainly doesn't hurt either. 

 Revolutionary: 37.84 

Even though so many thought he ran a much better race than Orb, he still wound up with almost the same fractional time. I think he has what it takes to win, and I think he will get the distance just fine. I still would've liked to see a faster time, but I think this is one of those years where there is just too much parity amongst the top three-year olds. 

Verrazano: 36.53 

Okay, they were going slow up front, but he still closed out the race well. This horse really reminds me of Smarty Jones, which may or may not be a good thing. I think the derby will be run honestly and I think his run will be a mirror image of Smarty's in 2004, but whereas Smarty had to beat Lion Heart and Tapit, Verrazano will have to beat horses who are a little bit faster than that. This horse confuses me so much, I wish he had a bad post position or a jockey from Finger Lakes so I could just throw him out.

Animal Kingdom vs My Miss Aurelia

This year has seen more mediocrity than anyone in the racing industry cares to admit. Like everyone else, I was incredibly excited over Animal Kingdom's win in the derby because I thought we had witnessed the birth of a star. Unfortunately, Animal Kingdom suffered a season ending injury- though he did compete in all three triple crown races.

So, with the racing season basically over, I'd like to give my vote for horse of the year to Animal Kingdom for reasons that are more political than anything else.

He has obscure bloodlines, more toughness than any of the other major participants this year- though not by much; and he is still going to compete next year. So, to anyone out there who has a real eclipse award vote, you might as well vote for a horse that symbolizes all that is right with horse racing rather than the cliché pick: Havre de Grace.

If you are dead set against Animal Kingdom then go for My Miss Aurelia, but please don't encourage the comedic inconsistency that has plagued horse racing by voting for any of the horses that competed in the BC Classic.

My Miss Aurelia ran four times this year and managed to make going undefeated look easy. She is also a legitimate Derby contender, though her connections seem reluctant. Either way, it's time for us to put our foot down and say that losing more than two races, ducking your biggest foes and racing in only one state will simply not be tolerated anymore.

We will never get back to the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer if we act like we're fine with living in the era of Havre de Grace and Drosselmeyer.

The Ultimate Rollercoaster

Like the term paper I neglected to turn in my senior year of college, I have to admit that I was unprepared for what has transpired on the derby trail these past few weeks. Uncle Mo wound up tanking in the Wood, but then it turned out that he had a stomach infection so the race can be dismissed. I always thought of him as a Favorite Trick wannabe, so I'll go ahead and dismiss him anyway.

So that brings us to the prodigal son- The Factor. I actually didn't get to see the race, as my television station only broadcasted the live call. As I heard the announcer yell out "The Factor has been taken back" I thought to myself if he wins this race then he really is something. Well, it turns out he didn't. Of course, the annals of horse racing are lined with names that appeared destined for mediocrity but then made a turn towards greatness; perhaps The Factor will be one of these names. As the track announcer so gladly announced, the local boys won it. ArchArchArch and Jon Court took home the victory, but so what? The race wasn't impressive and I'm still not convinced he is really legit, and so my search continues.


I really like Dialed In and Jaycito. I think Jaycito is the stronger of the two, but his immaturity really scares me. I'm not sure if he'll be able to focus with that crowd on the first saturday in May, but I love Smith and Baffert, so I'll most likely put my money on him if he runs. I really think that if he fully recovers, Jaycito will be a force to be reckoned with. I love that he's running so close to the derby as it will give him a chance to toughen up.

Then there's the mystery horse: Master of Hounds. His past performances leave something to be desired, but his breeding is impeccable! You don't have to be Sid Fernando to tell that Kingmambo out of a Sadler's Wells broodmare has derby written all over it. No European invader has actually won the run for the roses, but this guy seems different, and the fact that this is such a poor foal crop doesn't hurt either.

Like the lives of most people my age, this years derby trail has been filled with uncertainty and intense emotions. The trick to being twenty-something, like being a fan of a derby contender is to just throw your hands up in the air and say "screw it, whatever happens happens!" That's what I'll be doing from now on when it comes to Kentucky Derby prospecting as well as life, and I think I'll be better for it.

The Real Mccoy

I like Dialed In. I've liked Dialed In for a while, and with his performance in this year's Florida Derby he is now officially my "Derby Horse."

The odd thing about this years Florida Derby is that it has actually caused people to become more skeptical of Dialed In, and I can see why. The time it takes a horse to get from the three-eights pole, to the wire is usually a terrific indicator of how good the horse really is, and Dialed In took 39.12 seconds according to several accounts. To put that in perspective, lets say that your usual high-caliber thoroughbred takes 37 seconds to cover three furlongs, this means that if he was level with Dialed In at the three-eights pole, he would've wound up winning by ten lengths!

I'm not making a strong case for Dialed In am I?

The thing with the skeptics is that they are following a train of logic that isn't very useful when it comes to picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is a unique race with its own set of circumstances, stats-though helpful- are not as important as they would be in other races.

Dialed In ran past opponents who are only slightly faster than what he will encounter on Derby day.

His opponents in the Florida Derby post Beyer speed figures in the 90-93 range. Well, his other opponents, with the exception of Uncle Mo, post speed figures in the 90-92 range as well. He more or less encountered the same type of competition that he will encounter in the Derby. Gone are the days of Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Modest speed figures and even more modest fractional times are the norm.

He has Nick Zito

You need a trainer who has experience with routes. Zito has that experience. If nothing else, Dialed In will be very prepared come derby day.

He is lightly raced

What was once a curse has become a blessing. Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown were all lightly raced going into the Kentucky Derby, and as I recall that went well.

There are many horses that can win the run for the roses, and i'm not trying to say that Dialed In winning is a forgone conclusion; I'm just saying that he has a chance.

Derby Contenders List One

I don't bet on the future book, which is usually a good thing, because most of the time I'm wrong. However, last year I backed Super Saver in December, but I couldn't prove it because I didn't play him in the first pool-or any pool for that matter. So this is me trying to gain some bragging rights by making my Derby picks way in advance and hoping it all works out. So, this is how I'd play the future book if I did that sort of thing.


(1) Jaycito- Giving my top spot to Jaycito was tough. Technically he only has one win so far- though that may change by March- and he doesn't really like big crowds, as they seem to unnerve him. Nevertheless, he's a throwback, and I'm a sucker for a throwback. With the limited amout of horses who can truly get the distance, he has to be taken seriously.

(2) Dialed In- After his impressive run in the Holy Bull, I wanted to put this colt at the top of my list so badly. He knows how to run. Sure he got the pace he wanted, but he still had to finish, and boy did he ever! He will have to get a step faster to win the Derby, but I'm confident that he can do that.

(3) To Honor and Serve- The horse got a mile and an eighth easily. These Bernandini colts seem to have no problem improving, and he should be no different. The only thing that worries me is that Bill Mott might not crank him up all the way come Derby day. If Mott, who's an amazing trainer, does drill this horse properly, I don't see why both Mott and Johhy V can't get their first Derby win.

(4) Brethren- Like I said before, I missed out with Super Saver and i'd love to avenge that. However, Brethren is not his brother, Super Saver. What Brethren is is a horse who didn't seem to mind the distance of the Sam Davis, could probably handle more, but is ultimately a step too slow.

(5) Uncle Mo- Have you ever hated on a horse simply because he reminded you of another horse? Well Uncle Mo reminds me of Favorite Trick alot, and we all know how Favorite Trick's derby run turned out...yeah.

(6) Mucho Macho Man - The Holy Bull was a complete disaster for this horse. So, if you genuinely like Dialed In, you have to like to like Mucho Macho Man. His Risen Star victory was also pretty impressive. He'll get sentimental money because of his hard luck connections, but he'll also get unsentimental money cause he's legit.

(7) Silver Medallion- He's clearly a turf horse- and a damn good one at that- but he seems like he'd be able to transfer most of that form. He has promise.

(8) Rouge Romance- Always a bridesmaid never a bride. I'm not even sure the longer distance will help.

(9) Machen- Ran an impressive allowance race. He has some upside.

(10) Gourmet Dinner- Like I said, the Holy Bull had plenty of talent and there is no shame in coming up short. That is unless you had a terrific trip. In that case, shame, shame Gourmet Dinner.

The Rivalry Game

Florida vs. Florida St., Ohio St. vs. Michigan, USC vs. UCLA, these are the games that make college football matter! I know guys who do not watch college football, but will watch the rivalry games. These games are the foundation on which the sport has been built.

Horse Racing too has had its share of rivalries. Affirmed versus Alydar, Easy Goer versus Sunday Silence and Lure versus Star of Cozzene come to mind. The problem with these rivalries is that they are between individual horses. Rivalries between horses are few and far between and usually very anticlimactic (Yes, I am referring to Rachel v Zenyatta). What racing could really use is inter-stable rivalries. These rivalries would put a human face on the sport, and could potentially last forever.

The question is: Which stables would make the best rivals? Here's what I came up with.


IEAH vs. West Point Thoroughbreds:

Like two girls who wound up wearing the same dress to the ball, the two major racing partnerships must harbor some healthy animosity to one another. Throw in the fact that many think Iavorone and Dutrow are not always the best horsemen, and you have the classic good guy versus bad guy tale; although I personally do not believe that anyone gets into the racing business to abuse horses-just my opinion. Either way, IEAH and West Point should agree to meet head to head in a series of graded stakes races and settle the question of which racing partnership is greatest once and for all.

Claiborne Farms vs. ?

Claiborne races and then stands stallions like nobody else. That's why I put a question mark in place of their opponent's name. The other breeders who also race need to step their game up. Overbrook Farms is making a comeback. Perhaps Claiborne will have a rival after all. The stakes would be very high in this rivalry as Claiborne themselves stand the sires they race, and a loss could affect that horses value at stud terribly. On a less meaningful note, both stables have really cheerful looking silks. I wouldn't mind seeing either of those silks side by side coming down the stretch.

Mary Lou Whitney vs. Jenny Craig

The Queen of Saratoga takes on the queen of weight loss. Now, of course in order for this rivalry to succeed, Jenny has to start winning more races; it's not that Jenny doesn't win plenty of races, it's just that Mary Lou wins everything. Provided Jenny Craig does kick her win percentage into overdrive, this could be one for the ages. Think about it. Jenny's base is Golden Gate fields and Mary Lou's base is Belmont/Saratoga. This is going to get ugly. Who said crazy, pointless geographically based rivalries were the domain of hip-hop stars alone?

The main point that I'm trying to make is that racing needs a human component. When thousands of people say they like Zenyatta, but are clueless as to who her jockey is, that is generally a bad thing because Zenyatta is retired, but Mike Smith should be around for a while. This is just one of the ideas I have. Feel free to comment.

Ye Old Switcheroo

It's always exciting to see someone who has paid his dues burst on to the racing scene with a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. It's absolutely disheartening to see said person have that derby contender ripped away from him' especially when said person has done nothing wrong.

A couple of days ago, Jaycito's owner: Ahmed Zayat transferred Jaycito from Mike Mitchell's stable to Bob Baffert's. While I'm floored by the decision due to warm and fuzzy reasons such as honor, respect and loyalty, the logical part of my brain has some qualms with Mr. Zayat's decision as well.

The Kentucky Derby requires a horse to be in peak form. It is a grueling race with a take no prisoners mentality. Baffert is quite the trainer, and has won the race three times. He also nearly guided Mr Zayat's horse: Pioneer of the Nile to victory in the Derby in 2008, so the man can train horses- we know this to be true. It also needs to be said that Baffert is not at fault here. Refusing the opportunity to train Jaycito is like refusing to date your best friend's ex- and your best friend's ex is Emmanuel Chriqui.

The point I'm trying to make is that Mitchell is a very astute trainer as well; especially when it comes to extremely taxing route races. The San Luis Capistrano stakes is one of the most taxing races in the country. Racing secretaries rarely write 14- furlong races anymore, making the San Luis Capistrano one of the few tests of a trainer's ability to instill some fitness in his horses; Mike Mitchell has won the race twice. He has taken horses that seemed washed up and turned them into champions. He even came close to ending Zenyatta's win streak earlier this year. Like quarterbacks, trainers cannot be judged by wins and losses, but rather by how much they have done with the opportunities given to them, and Mitchell has always squeezed every last ounce of potential out of every single horse that has come onto his barn, so what makes Mr. Zayat think that this time would be any different?

The really sad thing about this is regardless of whether or not he wins or even races on the first Saturday in May, Jaycito will probably be one of the greatest horses to have ever been in Mitchell's barn. There is something about this horse that screams winner. As many know, he had to overcome incredible odds just to get to the track. The really great thing is that if Jaycito makes it to the run for the roses, no one will be rooting for him harder than Mike Mitchell, for trainers like Mitchell see every horse that comes through their barns as children more so than investments, and who can root against his own child?

Reflections on the Breeders Cup

Well, some of you may be wondering why I only previewed two races. Well, it was all part of my master plan to look like genius. I picked the two races in which I was sure that not only would the favorite be knocked off, but also who exactly would knock the favorite off.

Well, of course, I was wrong.

Lets start off with the juvenile. I was brimming with confidence as Jaycito entered that starting gate because I knew that he was a deceptively fast horse who would love the mile and one-sixteenth distance. What I did not know was that Jaycito would unlearn everything that he had learned in terms of schooling and preparation, and drift wide after clipping heels with another horse; I did not see that one coming. I also didn't know that Uncle Mo could easily get the distance and provide the most impressive Juvenile performance in a long time. I'm young, but I'm from the old-school. I cannot show respect at the betting windows to a horse named Uncle Mo- I just can't do it. By the way, I make it a point to play John at least four times a day, so it's pretty funny- even to me- that he wins on the rare occasion that I choose to back someone else.

Oh well, onto the mile.

I was pretty happy I got this wrong. You see, here's the thing, as a young fan there just aren't too many times you get to witness thoroughbred racing history. So when Goldikova looked Sidney's Candy in the eye and said "this is not the La Jolla, and I'm certainly not Kid Edward", I had to respect that. Good job Goldi!

Of course, what recap would this be if I didn't talk briefly about the fight and Zenyatta.

As a man, when someone does you wrong you walk away 95 percent of the time. For Calvin this must've been the five percent. In Calvin's defense, he seems like a very nice man, so he must've been really disturbed by what happened. Personally, I don't blame him. Castellano put Borel's life in danger and cost him the race. Calvin had the right to be upset. Hopefully these two can kiss and make up. Personally, I don't really care as I waste most of my money on John, therefore the mental and physical condition of these two guys doesn't really affect me much.

Now for Zenyatta: I think this race did more for her reputation than any other race she has ever ran before. She got squeezed at the break, then she had trouble gripping the track for the first quarter of a mile, so it's logical to assume that she spotted the field an extra six or seven lengths in addition to the ten or so she usually spots them. Mike Smith did a great job riding, but so did Garrett Gomez. Garrett hugged the inner part of the track while managing to avoid the rail, which happened to be dead. Then there is age. Zenyatta is six. Blame is four. This is the best Blame will ever be. Zenyatta, though she was fit, has obviously been fitter than this. Then there is the surface. C'mon. Zenyatta is running on traditional dirt- something she hates. Blame is running over his favorite track. I'm so impressed it was a nose that separated these two instead of five lengths.

BC Mile Preview

Every single race in the Breeder's Cup is interesting; but if i'm being completely honest, this race is much more interesting than the rest- at-least from a betting perspective.

No horse has ever won a breeder's Cup race three consecutive times. If Goldikova crosses the finish line first today, she will have accomplished one of the most impressive feats in horse racing. This great thing, or sad thing depending on how you look at it, is that Goldikova could very well go down in flames.

The daughter of Anabaa comes in to this race in impressive form, having won four of her five starts this year. The problem is that she is facing all of the same horses she defeats over in Europe in addition to our best milers.

The American contingent is led by the big three: Sidney's Candy, The Usual Q.T. and Gio Ponti.

Now here is where it gets interesting.

The big three will all be attacking Goldikova at different parts of the race. Sidney's Candy will most likely set the pace, The Usual Q.T. will stalk a couple of lengths back and Gio Ponti will hang back close to last. This doesn't mean that it's impossible for Goldikova to win- not at all. What this does mean is that Goldikova's jockey, Olivier Peslier, cannot focus on keeping Sidney's Candy honest because that sets the race up for the othe rtwo American horses. In fact, he cannot hone in on any of them because it sets the race up for the other two. Throw in the fact that Goldikova is breaking from the far outside and things get even more complicated. If I'm Peslier, I go straight to last, mount a furious bid at the quarter-pole and pray that it all works out.If that's the strategy he goes with, Goldikova and a well rested Sidney's Candy could put on one of the most legendary stretch duels we've ever seen.

Goldikova will hit the board, but she may not be in the winner's circle. This is a great race to bridge-jump on Goldi and play Sidney's Candy, Gio Ponti and The Usual Q.T. to win. Proviso has an outside chance to round out the trifecta.

Live Longshot: Court Vision

This is Cool

This is cool.

BC Juvenile Preview

This race reminds me of the 2005 Juvenile in which the bettors tricked themselves into thinking they were handicapping a two-horse race. Although Uncle Mo and Boys at Toscanova are both excellent horses, Jaycito has been quite impressive so far, and shows no sign of distance limitations.

With several horses vying for the lead, Jaycito's stalking style could benefit him greatly here. It's always tough to tell what to do with a horses form at Keenland, but still J.B.'s Thunder impressed me greatly with his runaway performance in the Breeder's Futurity at Keenland.

I think Jaycito is the class of this race. If the race were 9 furlongs, Jaycito would be a lock. At 8 and a half Jaycito is probably still the best. I think J.B.'s Thunder will set tough fractions and wilt at the eighth pole, but that should still leave him in a dogfight with Boys at Toscanova for second- you're guess is as good as mine concerning who comes away with that one. I think Uncle Mo is pure speed and will be exposed like many Juvenile contenders before him.

Live Longshot: Biondetti

My Place or Your Place

Unless you're dealing with violent aggressive types, it's always fun to put your two-cents into a hotly contested debate, and right now there are few debates as hotly contested as who should host the Breeder's Cup on a year to year basis. So after I act as representative for each of my 5 nominated tracks, pointing out why they deserve to host the cup, I will talk about how exactly I think the Breeder's Cup hosting duties should be divvied up.

Santa Anita Park: Santa Anita has hosted the event 5 times and is located in sunny Arcadia, California; need I say more.

Churchill Downs: After Saturday, the twin spires will have witnessed a record 7 Breeders Cups. Clearly being at the center of the racing industry has its perks.

Arlington Park: Yes there was a betting scandal the last time they hosted, but that is not the fault of its ownership or anyone related to the track. The 2002 Breeders Cup was still a major success, sort of.

Belmont Park: My local track. Belmont has an amazing mile and one half dirt course that is intimidating for the modern racehorse, but intriguing to the old-school fan.

Gulfstream Park: A beautiful track with an amazing climate. Just don't draw post 14 in a route-trust me.

So here is how I think it should work:

Santa Anita, being that it's a stones throw from the media capital of the world should host the Breeders Cup every year in my opinion; however the thoroughbred industry, which is based in Kentucky, would probably feel slighted by that. So I propose that Santa Anita gets to host the cup every other year, and then a lottery takes place during even years between the other four tracks I mentioned.

During even years Belmont Park and Gulfstream would have a 30 percent chance of winning the lottery due to the fact that they have shown they can properly host a Breeders Cup. Churchill Downs and Arlington would each have a 20 percent chance because Louisville and Chicago are more appropriate destinations for industry folk.

My model is simplistic, but not perfect by any means. The main purpose that it serves is to keep the most prestigious event in racing in the media capital of our country so that media coverage will be as plentiful as it can possibly be. The only reason I propose the rotation of the event is to keep those at the heart of the industry happy as well.

Please give me your thoughts. Should Santa Anita host the cup every other year? Should Churchill and Arlington- arguably the two worst Breeders Cup hosts- ever get to host the cup again? I'd love to hear from you.

A Real Champion has Fallen

When I found out that one of my equine heroes Real Quiet died today, I felt compelled to write something.

Horses are by nature fragile. So many get injured, breakdown and die that honestly it doesn't even phase me that much anymore. However, the news of Real Quiet's sudden demise has left me a little more bothered than I usually am when it comes to events such as this.

Ever since I started watching racing at the age of five, I've been a sucker for a hard luck horse; and "The Fish" as his connections so affectionally called him was definitely a hard luck horse. As I was told by people, his breeder keeps most of his horses, but when he realized that "the fish" had crooked legs he sold him to Mike Pegram for $17,000. At first it seemed like only a slightly bad deal. Real Quiet was placing and showing in grade 3 events but had a problem breaking his maiden. Of course, we know how this story ends.

The Kentucky Derby rolled around and the betting public made Indian Charlie- Real Quiet's stablemate- the favorite. They were all going on logic. Indian Charlie looked the part. He was tall, strong, athletic and unlike Real Quiet he didn't have screws in his leg. However, the brilliance of horse racing is that the horses don't know about all the reasons that they should or should not win a race. Real Quiet didn't know that his breeder didn't really think he would amount to much, he also didn't know that his stablemate was the one everyone had shown up to see or that his sire was the miler: Quiet American. You see horses don't have the capability to pity themselves and curse their circumstances. Horses can't blame their lack of success on the recession. All a horse knows is that it's his job to get to the wire first and Real Quiet usually got to the wire first. He was rarely on the wrong end of a photo finish. In other words, he was the personification of perseverance.

R.I.P. fish. Your career was an inspiration to us all.

Do Onto Others

Revenge is pretty sweet; unless you are on the receiving end of it. In those instances it leaves a bitter taste in your mouth that no amount of Listerine can seem to remove.

The year was 1994 and I was an innocent, some would say naive child. I love the Breeder's Cup- every single race- even the new ones that probably don't really belong. However, on this day I was especially excited about the B.C. Mile. The great American bred Lure was on the verge of a history making three-peat.

Of course, Lure drew the extreme outside. However, I wasn't worried considering that he had won the race from that post before. I was brimming with anticipation as Mike Smith's bright yellow silks made its first appearance on the screen. The heroes had arrived, and they were about to show the world that no country can produce thoroughbreds and jockeys quite like the United States.

It probably only took the horses a minute or two to load, but it seemed like an eternity. When they finally loaded I got even more excited. However, all that excitement dissipated after about 200 yards. Lure, who is usually around the lead, broke poorly, clipped heels and was towards the middle of the pack. He made a mild bid and then faded to ninth. I have recapped this race from memory because I still refuse to watch it. A then relatively unknown named Frankie Dettori had won aboard Barathea, and dashed my chances to witness history.

16 years have passed, and I once again have a very realistic shot at witnessing history. The talented filly Goldikova looks poised to do what so many others before her could not and win her third BC Mile. I know that when her jockey Olivier Peslier guides her through the post parade, Churchill Downs will erupt with applause as both Americans and Europeans cheer on this remarkable racehorse, but I won't be one of them.

I understand that the poor girl just wants to run her heart out, but she has no idea about the consequences of her possible victory. If she just mows down Sidney's Candy and then proceeds to make Court Vision and The Usual Q.T. look like allowance horses, then how can anyone reasonably argue that American Turf racing isn't inferior?

I apologize to Goldikova and her connections, but I'd love nothing more than to see a repeat of 1994 with the Anabaa filly on the short end of the stick.

El Real Madrid

Earlier today, I saw one of the coolest things that I've seen in a long time. At the time, I wasn't even sure if I was witnessing what it was that I thought I was witnessing. I saw a racehorse named El Real Madrid run two races from three starts in eight days!

Today he led through honest fractions and I thought he would wilt away in mid-stretch, possibly finishing fourth or so. However, when he got to the top of the stretch he just pulled away in a display that would've been impressive even if he was rested and prepped for this race.

Now, anyone who knows me knows that I believe the declining interest in Thoroughbred Racing can at-least partly be attributed to the disappearance of iron horses like Boom Towner, who create a loyal fanbase and bring in people who wouldn't normally be interested in the sport. However, as someone who cares about the sport, I can't say that I'm too pleased with seeing El Real Madrid run three times in 8 days.

Thoroughbred Racing has suffered numerous black-eyes over the past decade or so, making each individual's own self-interest secondary to the interests of the racing community as a whole.

There are approximately 1.6 to 2.2 breakdowns per 1,000 starters. Even with the invention of polytrack these numbers have not declined. Most inside the racing community know that even horses that are sparingly run and have virtually no conformation flaws can break down. However, the everday fan- the guy and girl that this sport so desperately needs- feels bitter resentment towards the sport when these truly unpredictable injuries happen. Imagine how betrayed the everday fan would feel if an otherwise healthy horse broke down because he was run three times in eight days. I'm sure that his trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. felt that the chances for injury were marginal, as I've seen him run horses twice in one week many times before; however, if one of these days a catastrophic injury befalls one of these horses that he likes to run so frequently, the entire racing community will have to deal with the public relations nightmare that will ensue.

Running horses very frequently is a calculated risk, but our sport cannot afford calculated risks right now.

A Beautiful Microcosm

EA Sports President Peter Moore once said that sports seem to be a great microcosm of life, and maybe that's why it connects so many people around the world. The statement really resonated with me because I hadn't heard a more interesting and thoroughly accurate statement in a long, long time.

Though Thoroughbred Racing has lost its mainstream appeal, it still has a strong, almost cultish fanbase- and I think that's because it truly epitomizes Mr. Moore's "microcosm theory."

Take for instance the 1993 Breeders Cup Mile. Lure drew the number 14 post position and many thought that it would be his downfall. Turf racing is all about saving ground and it would take a special horse to go wide around turns and still win. However, Lure did just that. He wound up darting from the outside to the rail and he still had enough left to run past Ski Paradise and post a comfortable victory.

In fact, I've seen so many horses win from terrible post positions that a novice racing fan might think that the disadvantage of an outside post is not as bad as those of us who've been around the game make it seem. However, a bad post position affects your entire strategy and can cause a horse to have to cover an extra two to three hundred feet of ground. So, how is it that so many horses overcome this huge bias? The simple answer is that some horses just will themselves to win regardless of the circumstances. Anyone who saw the 2008 Kentucky Derby knows that Big Brown had to summon something incredible to win that race. He then had to summon that incredible something tenfold in order to win the Haskell that same year. The point I'm trying to make is that thoroughbred racing is hardly an egalitarian sport, yet so often the best horse seems to find a way to win.

Now how does this all relate to life?

Several days ago I was having dinner with my friend Russell. Every group has one guy who always has an interesting story to tell, and he's ours. So naturally, he pursued the one avenue of life most promising for those that always have a story to tell- he became a comedy writer. His career has been going well, and a month prior to our dinner I saw him do a hilarious set at Comix in New York City. However, when we sat down for dinner he seemed slightly frustrated. I can't completely remember how long it took me, but when I finally got him to open up he told me that his career wasn't progressing as quickly as he would've liked it to because he hadn't gone to an Ivy-League school like many other comedy writers.

I tried hard not to chuckle. I couldn't believe he was using his alma-mater as an excuse. Though it is true that going to an Ivy-League school opens many doors in the entertainment industry, people from all types of universities make it, because like thoroughbred racing, talent wins out. My favorite pop-culture writer Chuck Klosterman went to the University of North Dakota. Surely, going to Columbia would've been more beneficial for an aspiring pop-culture journalist, but Chuck made it anyway. In fact, the offices of top magazines are filled with people who did not attend a prestigious college.

Several years ago economists found that people who go to second-tier universities but possessed the credentials and gained acceptance into top-tier schools are just as well off in the long run. I would agree that going to a school that no one has ever heard of may be like breaking from the 20th post in the Derby, but those who are truly talented often make it anyway- just ask Big Brown.

Alabama Preview

As many people have been quick to point out, the showdown between Blind Luck and Devil May Care is not the same as a showdown between Rachel and Zenyatta, but the latter may never happen and the former is about to happen. So, let's appreciate the blessing that this is and not miss what we never had and may never have.

Here is my assessment of each horse. As I've said before racing is unpredictable and I'm a terrible handicapper; so bear that in mind before you go to the windows.

Acting Happy: Seems like a lot of cheap speed to me. I would pass on this filly.

Devil May Care: There are so many horses who just aren't themselves at the Derby but go on to be excellent racehorses that it would take forever to name them all. However, the one that this filly reminds me of is Serena's Song. Serena didn't run well at all, and she wound up finishing 16th place. However, she went on to have an incredible career and is regarded as one of the greatest racehorses of the modern era. This Todd Pletcher filly is a lot like her in that in a perfect world she would never go a mile and a quarter, but she has the talent to stretch out and get away with it. If there isn't a speed duel- and I don't see why there would be one- she can easily win this this race and cement her position at the top of the division.

Tizahit: I feel like I'm falling into a trap here. Every fiber in my body wants to tell you that this horse is overmatched and that betting on her is literally the equivalent of making a non-tax deductible donation to Saratoga. However, her connections just won a major stakes race in Canada with a 65-1 horse. Proceed with caution here.

Blind Luck: She usually finds herself digging tooth and nail to beat some fairly talented filly and somehow she almost always manages to pull it off. It's just unfortunate for her that she isn't facing some fairly talented filly- she's facing Devil May Care. However she manages to make this affair pretty interesting because unlike the other fillies, she probably wants to go ten furlongs. She will give it her all. I'm just not entirely convinced that it will be enough.

Connie and Michael: Watch out for this one! She proved that she can run with that impressive second to Devil May Care in the Mother Goose. We know that she has the tactical speed necessary for a ten furlong event, and her injury caused her to miss the C.C. American Oaks, giving her some much needed time off. I really think she will run the race of her life and surprise everyone. As far as whether or not running her heart out will put her in the winners circle is concerned, we'll just have to wait and see.

Havre de Grace: She ran an impressive race against Blind Luck but she's never been to Saratoga before and she won't be as close to the lead as she was in the Delaware Oaks. She is definitely worth keying in an exacta, and maybe Dutrow can work his magic, but she is not as good as her 4-1 morning line odds suggest that she is. Of course, racing is unpredictable and Saratoga is the "Graveyard of Favorites" so make of that what you will.

Clarity

Clarity was the big buzzword going into the Haskell Invitational. The Derby, Preakness and Belmont were won by three different horses, and none of them looked as impressive as Ice Box and Trappe Shot going into Monmouth Park's signature race today.

I personally thought that Trappe Shot, Ice Box and First dude would stumble toward the finish line in a three-way dead heat and muddle up the picture some more- boy was I wrong! Lookin at Lucky got the trip he needed, and manhandled the entire field today drawing off to win by four lengths.

The race is a perfect example of how clear your perception of a division can become after one race. The entire nation was pretty sure that Lookin at Lucky's less than stellar record was due to bad luck, as evidenced by the fact that the betting public sent him off as the 3-5 favorite; however with each setback more and more doubt concerning his ability started creeping in. The always honest Nick Zito even said that Trappe Shot looks like the horse to beat.

Well, with his emphatic win today Lookin at Lucky has now established himself as the best three year old. All that is left to do is make sure Quality Road, Zenyatta, Rachel and Lucky make it to the B.C. Classic and we will have the type of clarity concerning Horse of the Year that we so desperately crave but so rarely ever receive.

Opening Day at the Spa

If there is one thing I've learned it's that I have a talent for picking horses. No dear reader, I cannot make you wealthy because my talent lies in figuring out which horse will finish first at the quarter-pole.

I arrived at the "graveyard of favorites" around 1:10- so I missed the first race. I put 20 to win on the Johnny Velazquez horse in the second race and keyed him over some of the other horses. Now here is the thing with John- John can telepathically sense when I have wagered money on him and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!

The man was sitting in second through some really soft fractions. He then made a bid for the lead at the three-eights pole, got it, then relinquished said lead with 100 yards to go in the race. Needless to say, betting-wise, I knew that it was going to be a long day.

I wasn't too successful at handicapping, but it didn't really matter. Saratoga is the epitome of classiness and charm. To say that the place lives up to the hype is an understatement. My friends skipped out on me so I used the occasion to get some brownie points from my parents by taking them; and my mom basically summed it up when she said "this really feels like a racetrack."

Between the trumpet players, friendly staff and even friendlier crowd, you don't really mind that you're losing money. It also doesn't hurt that they bring the horses through the crowd. You could go all day at your typical track and never see an actual horse.

I can't wait to visit Saratoga again for it's an incredible example of all that is good about thoroughbred racing. I really wish my friends had decided to come with me because this place can turn even the biggest haters of thoroughbred racing into the cheering faithful.

Prado not of the Edgar Variety

Like actors and musicians, you never really realize how great Thoroughbred stallions were until they have passed away. Such is the case with El Prado.

Though the son of Sadler's Wells may get a ton of respect from those who study pedigrees for a living, the rest of the Thoroughbred racing industry never really gave this horse his due.

The great gray champion gave us Medaglia D' Oro, Artie Schiller and Borrego. However, like a musician who knows how to properly craft a setlist, he may have saved the best for last. Paddy O' Prado, who ran an impressive third in the Kentucky Derby, has just won both of the big Colonial Downs turf races with his win in the Virginia Derby. He ran against Stately Victor and Interactif and made them look like two-year olds.

I know that it's too early to say, but I think that Paddy O' Prado could be the best three-year old turf horse in the country, and a legit contender for the Breeder's Cup Mile. He will still have to face the big obstacle of staying healthy as well as the onslaught of European horses who will be ready to challenge, but if he runs in the Breeder's Cup like he has been running lately, Lure and Da Hoss- both of whom won the the Breeder's Cup Mile twice- will have some competition for the title of best modern American turf miler.

I know I bring this up way too often, but even-though the El Prado's, Cozzenes and Theatricals may not sire too many horses who can win the six furlong feature race at Aqueduct's main track, they sire horses who can win big races month in and month out and that has to count for something. Like Joni Mitchell said " Don't it all seem to go, that you don't know what you got till it's gone." Breeding horses solely to impress people at a yearling auction is truly akin to paving paradise and putting up a parking lot.