My Place or Your Place

Unless you're dealing with violent aggressive types, it's always fun to put your two-cents into a hotly contested debate, and right now there are few debates as hotly contested as who should host the Breeder's Cup on a year to year basis. So after I act as representative for each of my 5 nominated tracks, pointing out why they deserve to host the cup, I will talk about how exactly I think the Breeder's Cup hosting duties should be divvied up.

Santa Anita Park: Santa Anita has hosted the event 5 times and is located in sunny Arcadia, California; need I say more.

Churchill Downs: After Saturday, the twin spires will have witnessed a record 7 Breeders Cups. Clearly being at the center of the racing industry has its perks.

Arlington Park: Yes there was a betting scandal the last time they hosted, but that is not the fault of its ownership or anyone related to the track. The 2002 Breeders Cup was still a major success, sort of.

Belmont Park: My local track. Belmont has an amazing mile and one half dirt course that is intimidating for the modern racehorse, but intriguing to the old-school fan.

Gulfstream Park: A beautiful track with an amazing climate. Just don't draw post 14 in a route-trust me.

So here is how I think it should work:

Santa Anita, being that it's a stones throw from the media capital of the world should host the Breeders Cup every year in my opinion; however the thoroughbred industry, which is based in Kentucky, would probably feel slighted by that. So I propose that Santa Anita gets to host the cup every other year, and then a lottery takes place during even years between the other four tracks I mentioned.

During even years Belmont Park and Gulfstream would have a 30 percent chance of winning the lottery due to the fact that they have shown they can properly host a Breeders Cup. Churchill Downs and Arlington would each have a 20 percent chance because Louisville and Chicago are more appropriate destinations for industry folk.

My model is simplistic, but not perfect by any means. The main purpose that it serves is to keep the most prestigious event in racing in the media capital of our country so that media coverage will be as plentiful as it can possibly be. The only reason I propose the rotation of the event is to keep those at the heart of the industry happy as well.

Please give me your thoughts. Should Santa Anita host the cup every other year? Should Churchill and Arlington- arguably the two worst Breeders Cup hosts- ever get to host the cup again? I'd love to hear from you.

Belmont Prediction

With my first post I'm going to attempt to do the seemingly unthinkable, I'm going to try to predict the winner of the Belmont Stakes. Now, I know what you're thinking. Predicting how horses will behave going a distance they've never been before is kind of like predicting how your family will react when you tell them you've been seeing someone for 6 months unbeknownst to them- no small task.

So, here's how I see the race breaking down

Dave in Dixie: Connections matter, and Dave in Dixie has some of the best in jockey Calvin Borel and trainer John Sadler. Borel is a great jockey, but his work with closers is legendary. It also helps that for some reason the closers almost always get a good pace to run at in this race. So, does all of this add up to a win for Dave in Dixie? Probably not, but what it does add up to is a shot for this colt to pick up the pieces late and hit the board for a second or third place finish.

Make Music for Me: Trainer Alexis Barba seems like such a cool lady that even if I had nothing nice to say about the horse I would just keep my trap shut and move on to the next one, however I actually like his chances...a lot! He had a terrible trip in the Derby and still managed to finish 4th. He doesn't seem to get tired, and if you're looking for a classier longshot than Dave in Dixie, he's probably your best bet.

Fly Down: Do you remeber a horse named Purge? Probably not right? He was the horse who everyone predicted would derail Smarty Jones' Triple Crown because of his impressive run in the Peter Pan. The reason I bring him up is because he reminds me an awful lot of Fly Down. He is a very logical pick because of his affinity towards the Belmont Surface, but he probably won't be anywhere near the leaders when they get to the quarter pole- play this one if you want, but don't say I didn't warn you.

Ice Box: You can throw out everything this colt has done before the Florida Derby. He's a new horse. He was full of run in the Derby but got stopped badly. Instead of giving up, he rallied gamely to pick off Paddy O' Prado at the wire. He likes the distance, he will probably like the track and he is just the classiest horse in the field. There are no sure things in horse racing, but if he doesn't bounce, and most Nick Zito trained horses don't, he will probably win this race by three or four lengths.

First Dude: Yes, his name is an homage to Todd Palin. Now that we've taken care of that let's talk about this colt's chances. He is a remarkably talented colt who did really well in the Preakness by setting the pace. However, that strategy doesn't work in the Belmont and his jockey Ramon Dominguez has given all indications that he will abandon it and try to take this race from midpack. The only problem with this is that no one discussed this strategy with First Dude, and the colt may not want to run that way. There is also the problem that he is breaking from the 11 hole and could get caught out wide. Ultimately, I just don't think that First Dude is the type of horse talented enough to switch running styles, get caught wide, and still win the Belmont. I'd play him in my trifecta, but that's about it.

So, there you have it. My assessment of the five best horses in the field. Hopefully, I won't have to come back here tomorrow and apologize for leading you all astray.